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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semi2000 who wrote (38948)	10/29/2000 1:42:16 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I think you are more or less a trader and do not like to have real long term long position. I have an investment horizon of 2 months to 2 years. This does not mean that I do not back out of a position in less than two months or that I do not hold it for longer than two years. It just means that when I open the position, my game plan is for somewhere in that time interval. So no day trading for me. And no buy and hold forever either. With cyclical companies, I try to time the cycle. I don't buy the notion that interest rate hike in EU will be followed by BOJ and/or US. Actually it is the other way around (at least for now). The stronger economies are the first to hike the rates (in this case US). The weaker economies will hold out as long as they can (Japan). But one way or another, everyone will fall in line. The capital markets are very interconnected. Certainly when you give 400 to 900 (with 700 now) for SOX is a wide range and I for one do not benifit by that pojection. It just means that in the short term there is a greater downside risk than up. I agree that it is not an easy call. All this IMO is pointing to confusion There is certainly a lot of confusion in the market. I can normally time the cycle inflection points pretty well. But in mid cycle I have to use TA to trade the market. I bought semicaps in January and held till mid March. I was a bit late and left a bit too early and held on shorter than I had expected. Despite all these mistakes, it was very profitable. You can be wrong two out of three times and still make money, if you limit your losses. So what is your target for AMAT buy and where is it sell at? If AMAT continues to fall, I'll be buyer at 35, knowing that it might go as low as 27 and will hold till I sense the top of next cycle. If AMAT turns around now and keeps on climbing, at $78 I'll start taking profits and try to be completely out by $87. All along, I'll be listening to the drum beats in the jungle and adjust course accordingly. ST