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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16256)10/30/2000 12:38:23 AM
From: limtex  Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev - Where are the facts for you to continue to make theses assertions.

If you do not have the monthly sales, receivable collections or credit terms you simply are guessing. In my view you should not make the kind of assertions that you have been based on guesses.

For instance not once have you mentioned in your "models" the possibility of a change in the product mix as the company brings out new products. Has SNDK done anything like that during the last three months?

On credit terms who ever said that SNDK credit terms were 45 days? When were they that number? The increase in the DSO is a more normal 6 days this year.

Typically, when business is not changing rapidly from month to month, the company DSO is relatively constant and fluctuates between 45 and 55 DSO. For any company, this number stays relatively constant and is quite typical to its business.

Who ever said that SNDK business is not changing rapidly from month to month? How do you know that retailers didn't slwo down their buying in July and August and concentrate their buying at the back end of the quarter?

What would have been the case if they had done precisely that? You seem not to have addressed that.

Once again what were the receivable collections during the quarter? At least try and make an estimate of that. It is quite possible to estimate that number on an on-going consistency basis as you seem to base your assumptions so what is it?



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16256)10/30/2000 7:31:52 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Zeex, re: "Some customers prepay for orders (i.e. they do not have credit with the company, or they buy directly from SNDK's web site, if SNDK sells in such a fashion to end users). Other customers pay within 10 days of shipment and take a 1% to 2% credit for paying ahead of time. Most customers pay net 30 days from delivery, and then za smaller number of customers have longer term payment."

A couple of points (from someone who has been selling to mass market retailers for years).

- When you are selling to the big guys, terms will be a minimum of 60 days, most will be 90 days. That is an increasing channel of SanDisk distribution, and could account at least in part for the increase in AR.
- When you have a seasonal product, where the retailer will load up in expectation of high seasonal sales, the manufacturer will sometimes offer extended terms on the large order "buy in", to help defray the retailers carrying costs. I have no idea if this is the case with SanDisk.
- SanDisks policy of not recoginizing revenue until the retailer sells the item is ultra-conservative at best, and inaccurate, misleading and stupid at worst. From personal experience, you never get a true picture of investory at a given retailer, so how do you accurately measure sales? You have issues including shrink, returns that get credited to the wrong manufacturer, IT problems, other things, it's just a mess. To say nothing of your terms, if a product sits on a shelf for 60 days, and you grant 90 day terms, you are looking at 120 days to get paid. It's much cleaner to recognize revenue as the product leaves the SanDisk dock, as 99.9% of companies do.

One other point, retailers started see decreased sales in September, they may have held back their payments to many vendors in an effort to make their own balance sheets look better.

I would say the culprit here is SanDisks method of recognizing revenue, and I expect AR to remain volatile.

John