Analysis: Bush Risks Crisis with NATO if
Elected
By Paul Taylor, Diplomatic Editor
LONDON (Reuters) - George W. Bush (news - web sites) risks sparking a
crisis with the United States' European NATO (news - web sites) allies if he
tries to implement policies on missile defense and the Balkans outlined during the presidential campaign, experts
say.
But many European analysts expect that if the Republican candidate wins, his seasoned foreign policy team will
talk him out of his stated plans to pull U.S. troops out of the Balkans and press ahead with an extended
anti-missile shield regardless of international opposition.
European governments were jolted this month when Bush's top national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice,
said a Republican administration would leave long-term peacekeeping in Bosnia and Kosovo to the Europeans
and focus on major military challenges such as the Gulf and Northeast Asia.
Rice's call for a ``new division of labor'' was in stark contrast to NATO's traditional concept of risk-sharing.
``If Bush came to NATO with those positions, it would be a recipe for a real crisis. But I think in the end, if
there is a Republican administration, they will soften their positions,'' a senior European security official said.
``This talk of a division of labor where the Americans would do the 'big war' and the Europeans would do the
'soft security' tasks of long-term peacekeeping is a bit simplistic. A messy world is not going to allow such a
mathematical division, even if it were desirable, which it isn't,'' the official said.
Europe Provides Most Balkan Effort
The Europeans were quick to point out they already provide 80 percent of the troops and 90 percent of the
funding for Balkan peacekeeping and reconstruction, and that the 11,000 U.S. troops there make up less than
one percent of U.S. armed forces.
``First of all, Bush doesn't know what he's talking about. We saw that in the third debate (with Democratic
Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites)) when he said Europe should provide troops on the ground, while
everyone knows Europe already provides over 80 percent of them,'' veteran German commentator Theo
Sommer said.
``Second, if America really wants to withdraw from joint NATO operations, then that will be the beginning of
the end of NATO,'' Sommer said.
In the absence of a Cold War-style military threat, halting ethnic conflict in the former Yugoslavia has become
the alliance's main task, and the main rationale for keeping about 100,000 U.S. troops deployed permanently in
Europe.
NATO, which marked its 50th anniversary last year, remains the main vehicle for U.S. political leadership in
Europe.
Julie Smith, head of the European program at Britain's Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: ``If Bush
follows the policies he's articulated on National Missile Defense and if he did pull out of the Balkans, I think that
would be the death of NATO.''
Many European allies are concerned at the Republicans' declared determination to tear up an Anti-Ballistic
Missile treaty with Russia unilaterally if necessary to forge ahead with building a national anti-missile shield.
But Smith hastened to add she did not believe the Texas governor would go through with such policies,
especially in the light of the immediate negative reaction from European allies.
Clash Over Europe's Role
Beyond the immediate concern over those two issues, many Europeans fear a Bush administration would be
less supportive of the European Union's own integration than Democratic President Clinton (news - web sites)
has been.
European officials point to an apparent contradiction between Bush's desire for the Europeans to handle more
of their own security problems, and the hostility of leading Republicans to the EU's emerging common defense
identity.
Richard Perle, a member of Bush's policy team, warned Britain in June that it was risking its ``special
relationship'' with the United States by its support for the European defense initiative, in which it is the main
partner alongside France.
In a speech to London's Center for Policy Studies, Perle branded the EU's plan to develop its own rapid
reaction force a French-inspired maneuver ``aimed at sidelining the United States in Europe.''
John Bolton, senior vice-president of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who has been speaking for
Bush in Europe, said the EU's common foreign and security policy was ''driven by a not-so-hidden
anti-American agenda'' and could lead to the demise of NATO.
While the United States carried the overwhelming military burden in last year's Kosovo war, the Europeans
undermined NATO's decisiveness and credibility by restricting the targets of the air campaign, Bolton said.
``If the EU had a united security policy, it would undermine the most salient reason for the U.S. military
presence in Europe -- that the Europeans can't do it alone,'' he added.
European experts say such thinking is corrosive, but they do not believe it would hold sway in a Bush
administration.
Professor Michael Cox, a leading British expert on U.S. foreign policy, said Bush was likely to maintain a large
degree of continuity with the Clinton administration, just as Clinton had done with the policies of Bush's father.
``The Bush family are centrist moderate Republicans. If you look at the professionals who are likely to pack a
Bush administration, they are not going to play around with NATO and the Balkans,'' Cox said.
``The Republicans want the Europeans to pay more and do more, but not to think more for themselves. If they
were to translate that rhetoric into policy, they would lose a lot of what they call American leadership in Europe.
I don't believe Bush would do that,'' he added. |
