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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (353)	10/29/2000 8:30:02 PM
From: kormac	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Ray, I merely pointed one small inconsistency in your post. Edward had in the meantime answered your post more fully. You seem to have agreed with him. Good. Things are quite different now than in 72, aren't they? Then the time from the peak oil production was a generation away. Yes, I was just finishing grad school then and am now thinking about retirement, it is close. So one generation later we have numerous estimates of the oil production peak appearing this decade, or with some optimism the next one. Last summer I read Colin Campbell's book, which gives more of the background material to bolster his Scientific American article with Jean Laherrere. There is no doubt that Campbell is more pessimistic than any of the others. But then he has had access to the Petroconsultant's databace. As Edward and Exardog have mention, Middle Eastern countries may be fibbing on the numbers. The futures prices have not yet come down as the trades want to see the oil. This is also the viewof Matt Simmons,. who think that Saudis have only 0.3 Mbd production idle. Thus the new announcements of 0.5 Mbd may not be filled. If you read Campbell's book, you will note that he wrote one chapter on Norway's oil production. As he lived 10 years in Norway, he was able to observe things from close range. He was very hard on Norway giving up her end,owment of oil in such a short time (Norway's oil production might have peaked this year. If not, perhaps next year.) If the Saudis have taken Campbell's message on Norway to heart, why would they increase capacity? Saddam also have good reasons to play his oil card, as he seems to be doing as we chat. The bottom line is that supplies are tight and there are other factors, such as Refinign capacity and tanker unavailability that keep the supply tight, as Edward mentioned. All this is not to say that oil prices will not come down again. They can in a major recession. As this is the major theme of this thread, this is the only reason to discuss oil here. It is not really worth repeating what one ought to do in a major recession. Only cash is safe. By the way. I also have a Eugene connection. My daughter went to OU and lives there today. :-) wiht my best regards, Seppo