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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (13714)	10/29/2000 11:30:25 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Gregory, I concur. The problem is the general market condition. If a company such as JDSU--with such a bright past and future--can get cut in half, then the general stock market condition is likely the problem. Sure in any bear market some stocks buck the trend big time. Picking them, however, is extremely difficult to impossible. Maybe JDSU will buck the trend and recover its upward momentum. Odds are it won't. Not until we reach a true market bottom and that is a long way off yet. The true bottom is way longer than most people think or would care to believe. We still, for example, have more of Mr. Greenshades rate hikes to work through the economy. When we do reach the bottom, it will be interesting to see. The stocks that lead into the market top are not the ones that lead out when the bull returns. Will JDSU buck that trend? It may, but the odds are not favourable. I believe that the trailing p/e of JDSU at it's bottom will be in the 15 to 30 range. (Probably in the lower third of that range.) Look to the past at other similar companies at market bottoms. That should help guide us as to the re-entry point. As for the 'cut in half,' what happened to that value? Well, d i s t r i b u t i o n happened. And the much-maligned analysts, told all of us--they still do!--that stocks are going up, so hurry and buy. Meanwhile, their back desks were selling--distribution--to the masses. Many said they were seeing a process of distribution starting a year ago last Fall and increasing during the winter! "Fooey!" said others. As the market and economy topped out, many people and institutions sold high p/e stocks into market strenght(distribution) to investors who said, "earnings don't count" and "the growth is so strong this stock has to go up" or, "it doesn't matter bear or not, I have the guts to hold through any bear market." Statistics show that most of those in the latter category sell out _precisely_ at the market bottom. Statistically, most of those feel so burned (rightly so) that they do not get back into the market until it is well into the new bull. And on it goes. I read an interesting story: There were two guys who thought they were making gobbs of money selling a bunch of pork bellies back and forth between themselves. They thought they were pretty smart too, until one guy got hungry and ate them all up. Reminded me of the story where the guy ate the tulip--"Siemper August." There has been an interesting debate here of late: Is the FO market growing at an accelerating or slower rate? Given the general market condition that question, I believe, is moot. I thought that question was moot back last winter when I got out. I thought then (thanks to Pat and Kent), that the market for FO was still growing but I bailed anyway. Another thing: buy on the dip has not worked since early February, 2000. That is a phenomenon of a bull market. Now the motto should be "sell remaining holdings into strength." Be the distributor, not the distrubtee. But, what the heck do I know--I ain't real smart as some have written. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Boplicity who wrote (13714)	10/29/2000 11:39:40 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Actually sebl was taken out and shot in the spring. down about 100, as I recall.

To: Boplicity who wrote (13714)	10/30/2000 7:06:28 AM
From: Thai Chung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

October 30, 2000 Despite Nortel's Slow Sales, Researcher Predicts Surges in Fiber-Optics Spending By MARK HEINZL Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Networking-industry research firm Ryan Hankin Kent Inc. sharply raised its forecast for North American spending on fiber-optic data-transport equipment, a move that could help ease industry concerns caused by weaker-than-expected optical equipment sales reported by Nortel Networks Corp. Nortel shares plummeted 29% last Wednesday, erasing $55 billion of market capitalization, after the Brampton, Ontario, telecommunications-equipment maker revealed optical-equipment sales fell in the third quarter from the second quarter and missed expectations by hundreds of millions of dollars. The news triggered a sell-off of shares of many companies involved in optical networking, as fears of an industry slowdown gripped investors. In a study to be released Monday, San Francisco-based RHK said it expects industry spending of $20.6 billion this year to rise 42% to $29.3 billion in 2001. A year ago, RHK had forecast spending of $19.4 billion for 2001. RHK also raised its spending forecast for following years, and predicts spending will reach $45.4 billion in 2004. The study puts Nortel in the lead for sales of optical-transport equipment in North America, with a 38% share of market this year, up from 29% last year. Much of Nortel's gains came at the expense of rival Lucent Technologies Inc., Murray Hill, N.J., the study shows. "We don't see any slowdown in the market," said Anil Khatod, Nortel's president of global Internet solutions. "Nortel continues to grow faster than the market" in North America, and more so in Europe, Asia and Latin America, he said. After announcing its third-quarter results, Nortel said its optical sales were constrained partly because some customers previously had deliberately built up inventories amid industry shortages, and spent the third quarter working the inventories down. "This inventory workout is already behind us," Mr. Khatod said. On Thursday, optical-components maker JDS Uniphase Corp., based in San Jose., Calif., and Nepean, Ontario, provided some relief to optical-industry investors with strong fiscal first-quarter results and an upbeat outlook. RHK arrives at its spending forecasts by discussing spending plans with telecommunications carriers, who purchase optical equipment, and the companies that sell it. Much of the increase in forecast spending is due to "new carriers that didn't exist 12 months ago," RHK Director of optical networks Dana Cooperson said. Some analysts doubt carriers will increase spending on the order RHK expects and cite fast-growing communications capacity in long-haul networks and uncertain demand. Though carriers could decide to restrain general spending, "if anything is going to suffer it's not going to be optical," Ms. Cooperson said, since optical networking allows carriers to produce the most communications capacity at the lowest cost. Still, the large number of established companies and newcomers in the optical-carrier industry means there is likely to be "some kind of consolidation," she added. Write to Mark Heinzl at mark.heinzl@wsj.com

To: Boplicity who wrote (13714)	10/30/2000 8:44:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Greg, thanks for the detailed reply.. got several points - capex is rising in forecasts - JDSU is rising fastest in growth among FO majors - JDSU is becoming the leading desired stock in the FO pack - the SDLI merger requires a very large integration in eyes of market (despite wholly owned indpt subsidiary plans) - this merger has served as a blanket for three months now - a NazComp base has already been built - the correction ends when the strongest fundamentally finally get hit - when FO sentiment improves, attention first turns to its leaders - plenty of JDSU overhead resistance, but clear path to 95-115 range agreed nothing will be immediate thanks again, Jim