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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (7912)	10/30/2000 7:49:18 AM
From: Paul Lee	Respond to of 14638

RHK Unveils New Optical Transport Forecast: North American DWDM Market Projected to Grow Over 50% Per Annum Through 2004; Nortel Increases Share to Maintain No. 1 Position SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 30, 2000--New findings from telecom market research firm, RHK Inc., show that the North American DWDM sector of the terrestrial optical transport market is expected to grow from $3.5 billion in 1999 at a 50% CAGR to $26 billion in 2004. The overall optical transport market, including shipments for DWDM, SONET, and DCS equipment, grew 67% in 2000 and is projected to reach $29.3 billion in 2001 and $45 billion in 2004. RHK expects the North American SONET market to grow at a 15% CAGR through the forecast period, and the DCS market to grow at 9% CAGR. "DWDM continues to be the technology of choice for carriers -- particularly long-haul carriers -- as they seek to increase the capacity of their networks," remarked Dana Cooperson, director of Optical Networks at RHK Inc. "In addition, RHK has seen continued demand for SONET and DCS equipment in the network. RHK predicts the DWDM sector of the market will reach $7.7 billion, the SONET sector will reach $10.5 billion, and the DCS sector will reach $4 billion in 2000. Correcting for overlap between the DWDM and SONET sectors, the total North American optical transport market will reach $20.6 billion in 2000." Nortel Networks led the overall optical transport market in 2000 with a 38% market share, up sharply from 29% in 1999. This was due to strong shipments of DWDM and SONET equipment, particularly at the newer, higher speed OC-192 (10 Gbps). Lucent and Fujitsu follow with 14% and 12% percent share, respectively, in the overall market. The remaining top vendors include Tellabs, Alcatel, Cisco, NEC, Ciena and Sycamore. "Nortel increased its share of the total North American optical transport market by 9% points in a market that grew 67%," Ms. Cooperson remarked. "Its performance in the fast-paced DWDM sector was particularly dominant, with a 20 point share growth to a very strong 57% share in a market that grew 126% this year. Nortel continues to win business with new carriers and grow business with its current customer base." Of the other top five optical transport vendors, Lucent experienced a decrease in its share in all three sectors (DWDM, SONET, and DCS) but remained in second or third position in each of the sectors. In SONET, Nortel maintained its share and number one position. Fujitsu secured the number-two spot in SONET, while CISCO leaped to a 9% share from essentially zero. Tellabs strengthened its number one-position in the DCS sector by five share points with Alcatel maintaining share and its number two-position. Detailed analysis of the optical transport market is available from RHK's WDM & Optical Networks and SONET Transport & DCS services. These services provide extensive research on key optical transport vendors and service providers in North America; market forecasts of optical transport systems; and analysis of the market and technology drivers influencing optical transport network deployment. RHK Inc. is the leading industry market research and consulting firm specializing in the analysis of advanced technologies for the public telecommunications network. The company provides subscription services and custom consulting to technology vendors, service providers, and the investment community in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. RHK's areas of expertise include: Access Networks, Core and Edge Switching & Routing, Emerging Network Architectures, New Voice Infrastructure, Optical Components, Telecom OS, SONET/SDH, WDM & Optical Networks, and other emerging technologies. RHK is based in South San Francisco. For more information, visit the company's Web site at www.rhk.com. Note: A Photo is available at URL: businesswire.com

To: Techplayer who wrote (7912)	10/30/2000 8:24:44 AM
From: unix_daemon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14638

What did Cramer say? I went to his website to check all this out. I don't care about the personal attacks. Would someone here address his arguments? Here is quote from Cramer's column: "[NT predicted] it would do $12 billion in optical -- a prediction made less than two months ago... by saying a quarter ago that it sees growth at 120%-130%. On the call last week, it talked about $10 billion in optical and a growth rate of 90%" Ok, is that true? Did NT lower their predicted growth rate from "120-130%" to "90%"? Did the $12bil number drop to $10bil? I don't own NT; are there not NT shareholders here promoting NT as a 'buy'? If yes, personal attacks against an NT bear (Cramer) are not a convincing bull case. Refute the bear argument instead. And Cramer didn't single-handedly bring down the optical sector. He instead seems to be voicing only what the market is Doing.