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To: seminole who wrote (77557)	10/30/2000 12:05:37 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

You are definitely correct about Buffet. He buys companies, not stocks.

To: seminole who wrote (77557)	10/30/2000 12:08:23 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Forgive me all; I was just "testing".... - I was just testing the efficacy of the scientific theory that for every "action - there is an equal "reaction" as it applies to stock message boards... ;) ie: the bagman & michael happless's hystrionic responses ~ Damn; you guys sure are touchy here ? ... and why would that be ? - since your illustrious NAZ & Bubblicious stocks are doing so damn well on this Mother of All Rallies here - ROFLMAO ~ richard dean - Buffet makes "timing" calls everytime he decides to "buy a company" to sell Coke, or buy Dairy Queen... he also made a timing & a commodity call when he accumulated a historic position in Silver... do NOT fail to tie that in with his total refusal to participate in "The Bubble"... I've ignored "nothing" about Buffet... but; just to make sure you understand - it's "Warren" not "Jimmy" that I'm referring too... ;) Silver has more upside volatility than Gold - for a commodity pureplay; it's the correct choice and Buffet made it during the peak turn of Bubblemania as both a hedge for his stocks and as a stand alone timing call fwiw. For "Stocks" leveraged to the commodity; there is just greater liquidity & choice in "gold" plays versus "silver" plays & certainly a greater choice of large cap & financially strong gold miners vs. silver miners. Buffet prefers the commodity, I prefer the stocks leveraged to the commodities. Don Hays made a brillant statement here: << "Just as the herd begins to talk about the trend, it often will be totally wrong. ">> - this is right on the BINGO money here in relation to the "buy the dip" mentality & the "Free Money" concept being touted of late - in that all you need to do is buy in October & sell in April... We are in the final stages of denial here; capitulation is looming & it will be the "mother of all capitulations" - it has to be... as we are at record Margin levels here, the ESF has pumped & propped this market up here into the Election & Funds are fully invested & over invested/concentrated in tech. Fidelity has been a strong tech seller all summer & is raising tons of cash all across the market. That Vinik just walked away from this market is a biggie - a biggie... Hays call for the NAZ to fall to 1800-1900 in 8-10 weeks is bold... I think we've got a 400-500 point 2 day "mini-event" trigger coming soon; but it will be the "grinding" nature of this Bear that is relentless and anyone who does any charting analysis of this entire Bull move of the last few years - has to see where we are going - all the head & shoulders charts are beyond ominous - they are 2x4 upside the head - type of obvious ! Valuations are the story - we just had 6 rate hikes folks and now GDP is halved ! - earnings misses across the board & downward revisions all across the board & new cap ex cuts announced daily along with ignoring $30+ Oil... a soft landing ? C'Mon people.... ... ask the airlines who have their Oil hedges coming off here shortly about soft landings... let $30 Oil last another quarter and see how they "land"... Oil & the exodus of OPEC Petro Dollars from the US markets is a looming story - negative for the US Bonds, Stocks, Debt & the Dollar - bullish for Gold & Euro Currencies & a final leg for the Oils' - but, one must be out of Oil under the Tech-Wreck Wire - as Oils can NOT buck a NAZ break / Market collapse. Unfortunately; that is perhaps why the OSX keeps selling off - as Smart Money is beginning to realize that the next Oilpatch leg - might NOT make it under the Tech Wreck Wire... and "that" is why we just may see Oct 97 deja vu all over again in the patch. ... tight stops & one eye on the Looming Tech Wreck are pre-requisites for playing this nice Oilatch buying opp - as if Don Hays is right about the next 8-10 weeks; only Gold & Malox make sense - (VBG) ~ PS Michael; don't get so emotional... I was just "kidding" - but, with a strong dose of reality mixed in. Now as far as "missing" a Gold Call - you're obviously kidding me... ;) I and others have done some dabbling since May - but, personally a near irrelevant non-portfolio weighting, traded some AEM early on etc.- as the XAU had a few nice little trading bounces; but I've only been talking about golds & building a portfolio weighting since this fall & XAU 50-55ish... You act like I was there beside Looney Luke back in 1999 - pre Y2K in my Gold Bug Bunker ? We are at XAU 44 here & we've allready seen those 15% days on the last Mid East "event"... the XAU walked headlong into tax loss selling - don't underestimate merely the "DCB" ability of the XAU - let alone the flight to safety upon any sudden market meltdown acceleration. I'm in a sector weighting "building" phase in the Golds - down 8-15% on individual names - but I want to be - as I "WANT" very much to continue to average down into weakness. I'm not claiming to make any week, day, hour & tic exact bottom call - never tried to. All I did was see the XAU collapse to new "historically cheap" shareprices & valuation multiples - "THAT" was when & where I began building a serious longterm position and I am happy as I can be here and I truly hope I get a XAU 35-40 buying opp. All my initial comments talked about a XAU 40-43 potential bottom & we basically aren't even quite there yet - just a touch of 43... Historic lows in shareprices and at historically low valuation muliples here Mikey....as in you must buy low to ever be able to sell high. I prefer to "buy low" - by primarially picking a historically supported initial entry position and this was; and then slowly, patiently and confidently keep averaging in & I am. Mikey; I'm getting better Gold buys here imho than I did at OSX 45 in the Oils. I am buying DROOY's reserves for $2 per ounce & I am buying their production at $105 per oz. I am buying GOLD (the stock) at $9 per ounce of reserves & $249 per ounce of production, buying HGMCY at $26 per ounce of reserves, NEM at $48 per oz etc. Yes; Mikey - I "blew" the Gold call - really blew it... Please; let me "blow it" just a while longer.... pleeeeeze give me a XAU 35 to "Blow it" some more - because I've still got lots of cash , all my margin & tight stops on my Oils - that I am not afraid of dumping to buy further XAU weakness... Good Luck & one final thought Mikey; - keep a Priest on Speed Dial ... because if you're buying, or holding this NAZ dip; your portfolio is soon going to be needing last rites... THERE IS NO SANE,TECHNICAL.OR FUNDAMENTALLY SUPPORTED REASON TO OWN ONE SINGLE SHARE IN ANY NAZ, OR TECH STOCK HERE - NONE. ... is that clear enough ? - look out below ~ Ciao~