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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (52414)	10/30/2000 11:42:49 AM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

jfd: Thanks to the networking stocks NAZ getting killed as is ORCL but MSFT is charging forward painting 70 with some regularity. This is a very strong performance and should encourage panic buying in MSFT soon. JFD

To: johnd who wrote (52414)	10/30/2000 12:04:03 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

200d moving average is at 78.08; crossing that would be good technical signal. That makes it reason #16 and let me add #17 as well. 16. MSFT crossed 50d moving average last week with 2 - 3 times average trading volume. 17. Mutual funds were significantly light into Sept. on MSFT and they must be craving to add softy back to top holdings and readjusting with richly priced CSCO, AOL, YHOO, SUNW. ====== 15 reasons why MSFT should rally Would like to add 5 more reasons why MSFT should rally 11. Everyone expects MSFT will rally after elections which is one week away. Reasoning here is a new govt. People also expect additional boost if Bush wins => Innovation over litigation. 12. Favorable legal developments: a. Got Stay, b. Won appeals court hearing, c. Won longer than normal filings request, d. Jackson wants to get out e. Klien is already out 13. 10 bucks in MSFT's share price is cash+investments+deferred revenues. 14. What other Dow stock guided $1B sequential revenue growth for Dec. Q and increased FY EPS estimates? 15. What else would you buy for year 2001, that will have increasing growth and trades at cheap to reasonable multiples =========== 1. Balmer says worst is behind and best is yet to come 2. Microsoft's book value went up 45% during last 12 months 3. Dataquest projects 25% PC growth in 2001 withouth w2k demand, and W2k creates additional growth prospects. 4. MSFT now trades only at 1.2times S&P PE compared to 2.6 an year ago. It is MSFT after all! 5. MSN is growing 100% per year in net subscription growth and .Net enterprise s/w is gaining traction. 6. Microsoft thought it was cheap at 86 , one year ago, when it gave out 99 options. 7. Microsoft bought 25million shares for about $70/share last Q and gave 2000 options at 66 in April and 69.75 in July. 8. Microsoft sold puts at strikes 70-78, likely thinking it would stay higher than that. 9. Goldman, Lehman and CIBC say Microsoft should rally. DLJ, ING have been targetting 140, 135 for 6 to 12 months. 10. Barrons analysts and Wall Street Week show pick MSFT as favorite pick for coming rally

To: johnd who wrote (52414)	10/30/2000 2:10:24 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

130, 140, 150 targets all over the map from one year ago. Let see how many of them would get it right. ===================== 1/19/00 Merrill Lynch reiterates 2-1, raised 00 estimates from $1.60 to $1.69, raised 01 estimates from $1.78 to $1.90 1/19/00 Paine Webber reiterates buy, FY00 estimates raised from $1.65 to $1.70, FY01 estimates $1.95, target $150 1/19/00 Salomon Smith Barney reiterates buy-medium, target $135 it only gets better from here 1/19/00 Lehman reiterates strong buy, target $130, Q in line 1/18/00 JP Morganm reiterates buy, Gates can now maximize his impact on strategy and Ballmer can focus on results 1/14/00 S & P Market Scope reiterates accumulate, as Bill Gates steps down 1/14/00 Bear Stearns reiterates buy, announced promotion of Steve Ballmer CEO, next generation Windows services strategy introduced, EPS est FY 00 $1.64 1/14/00 Paine Webber reiterates buy, company not standing still will now turn their focus to staking claim on the web 1/14/00 Warburg Dillon Read reiterates buy, Gates stepping down as CEO, 00 est $1.64 and 01 $1.90, target $130 1/14/00 First Boston reiterates strong buy, company on track to meet or beat 2Q est. $0.43 est 1/14/00 Lehman reiterates strong buy, new focus target $130 1/13/00 SoundView reiterates strong buy, higher risk of negative justice department settlement but we believe stock is attractive here in front of win 2000 pdt cycle. 1/4/00 Salomon Smith Barney reiterates buy medium, expect strong Windows 2000 12/23/99 DLJ reiterates buy 12/23/99 Warburg Dillon Read reiterates buy, 12 month target $130, new CFO, expect smooth transition, FY EPS estimates 99 $1.38, FY 00 EPS estimates $1.64 12/23/99 JP Morgan reiterates buy, CFO leaves, Greg Maffei 12/23/99 First Boston reiterates buy, CFO resigns 12/23/99 Paine Webber reiterates buy, raise target to $150, 12/23/99 Goldman Sachs reiterates reccomeded list buy, John Connors to replace Greg Maffei as CFO, FY 2000 est $1.63 12/16/99 DLJ reiterates buy, releases Windows 2000 on schedule, raised target from $115 to $140