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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (34917)	10/30/2000 12:22:40 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike: The NDX is setting up a short term double bottom in the 3000 area... bigcharts.com The NWX is also heading for a short term double bottom... bigcharts.com The SPX needs to move above 1395 on a closing basis... bigcharts.com If 1370 breaks, there is light support at 1365... There is double bottom support at 1335... Jim

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (34917)	10/31/2000 2:37:49 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

....If this isn't a bottom, then we are in for the most devastating of all bear markets ever. .. a strong view point..that supports the view that if we break SPX support this time we will see indiscriminate selling.. <<Our MASI indicator has just given its most bullish reading ever, with 82% of the sectors we follow registering an oversold reading. If this isn't a bottom, then we are in for the most devastating of all bear markets ever. Sentiment is so gloomy now, that we can't recall having seen this much negativity ever. So if this market doesn't bounce, it could mean that really serious trouble is about to brew. Other signs that a bottom is in place are the constant reminders appearing by the bears that the glass is not half empty, but totally empty, a sudden change of heart. The truth is that the NASDAQ bubble bursting has gone too far. Investors are pricing in the potential for Intel (NNM:INTC) and the rest of the chip sector to never sell another chip in this millennium. This of course is the reversal of the spring sentiment, when investors were pricing in the colonization of space and the dominance of the Universe by the human race. And more importance, investor interest in the stock market is beginning to wane, given anecdotal evidence of decreasing attendance to trading conferences. As we've noted before, when they get out the newspapers on the trading floor, it usually means that the bottom is near. There is no doubt about it. A great deal of damage has been done. But, while technology investors fret, we note that there is a bull market elsewhere. Just look at the charts of Green Mountain Coffee (NNM:GMCR), Loews Corp (NYSE:LTR) and Bell South (NYSE:BLS). For those who need more proof, we suggest looking at the charts of the Value Line Composite Index (VLE), and the S&P Mid Cap Index (MID). These broad market gauges are both above their 200 day moving averages, still surviving the brunt of heavy selling. Yes, it's hard to stay bullish in this market. And if we look at the entire market, it's downright foolish. But the long term remains positive, according to our Super Seven Market Forecaster and our MASI Indicator. Our BMTI indicator has improved as well. Interest Rate Watch The Fed Better Get Ready To Lower Interest Rates The Fed has done its job. Oil prices have likely made their highs. Gross Domestic Product growth has fallen by half. The new economy that was supposed to take us all to Nirvana is beginning to fall apart. Al Gore is beginning to trail in the polls. And the bear market in NASDAQ continues to grind. The big event is the top in oil prices. For those that don't believe it, we suggest a look at the chart of Lone Star Technologies (NYSE:LSS). This is a small Texas company which makes steel pipes and tubes used in the oil drilling industry. Lone Star has the knack of predicting the future of oil prices. The logic behind it , is that the smart money begins to note increasing potential demand in steel pipes and tubes, and begin to buy Lone Star before oil prices begin to rise. As the price of oil and the rest of the energy sector begins to rally, so does Lone Star begin to slow down. And when LSS stock breaks down, as it recently has by falling below its 200 day moving average, that means that the end is near. What it means is that energy prices will begin to fall, and that the recent bump in CPI and PPI will also falter. As the dot-com implosion's fall out settles, we should see increasing levels of layoffs and unemployment. And if there is a new party President after November 7th, we will likely see the Fed begin to talk about a stable environment, as long as fiscal responsibility rules. What that means is that if a new administration does not tow the line on keeping a balanced budget, there will be higher interest rates and they will be unpopular. As we've noted for weeks, the days of fast and furious growth just haven't been there, as the average maturity of money funds suggests that there is balance between supply and demand, as it remains at 50 days. Rising maturities usually precede falling interest rates. Bond traders are increasingly bullish having noted the signs of a slowing economy. Market Vane's bullish consensus for bond traders is 73% bulls. Eurodollar traders which are more short term oriented remain bearish. As long as the latter group remains bearish, the Fed is unlikely to act. All in all, this week's upcoming employment report should show signs of weakening. And if they do, this will mean that we are one step closer to lower interest rates from the Fed. Joe Duarte writes daily for MarketMavens.com. >>