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To: Apollo who wrote (85135)	10/30/2000 12:23:18 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

But I did recently post over on the Gorillas & Kings thread what looked like slowing growth in 2G . Notice the news release didn't get much comment, either here or there. I was hoping to wait for the exact breakdown on the CDG website....but oddly that is still unavailable. In fact, I cant even find the original press release on the website. Maybe everybody was at the CDG convetion last week.... I think the numbers were exactly as expected. The numbers from Asia are available on a monthly basis, so we already knew that Korea had lost subs during the quarter and that DDI/IDO was having problems. I guess there is a perceived slowdown in North America and Latin America during the 2nd quarter....however I think that this is very likely due to a one-time gain in subs that the CDG showed during the 2nd quarter. From your post.... 4Q ('99) 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, (in millions) World 50.1 57.3 65.9 71 N. America 16.5 18.5 23.1 27 Latin America 5.1 6.5 8.7 10.5 Asia 28 31.7 33.5 33.5 I give a very low probability to the fact that North American sub gains went from 2m in the 1st Q to 4.6m during the 2nd. This messes up the sequential comparisions....a better picture for NA is looking at the YoY gains which were very strong. The Latin American numbers look more plausible and are likely due to weakness this quarter by a Venezeulan CDMA operator. They have 2.443m subs....but only added 37,000 subs during the latest quarter. Not sure what happened there. For the upcoming quarter we should see continued strength in NA and a rebound in LA. The last two months has seen a rebound in Korea sub numbers, and hopefully the introduction of 1x handsets will spur further gains by December. DDI/IDO is a mess....they have been aiming for the introduction of new handsets during Novemeber to regain marketshare. However, it is hard to see how well $400 handsets with color LCD's are going to sell. The key number for the Qualcomm CC is going to be the guidance for chipsets sales during the Dec. and March quarters. Unfortunately, I think that this is going to be highly dependent on China, since a large scale order could swing the numbers by 10-20%. Slacker