I finally found the article in the Examiner. The important qualification is "in California":
Bush facing uphill climb with voters in California
Robert Salladay
OF THE EXAMINER STAFF Oct. 29, 2000
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Statewide poll finds most agree with Gore on critical issues
Texas Gov. George W. Bush must overcome significant obstacles if he wants to win the majority of California voters, who continue to say Vice President Al Gore would make a better leader on the issues they care most about, an Examiner/KTVU poll shows.
Unlike national polls that show a virtual tie among the Republican and Democratic candidates, Gore enjoys solid support among California voters, particularly women, minorities, and self-described independents. Voters also say they have far more favorable opinions of Gore than Bush.
As the campaign enters its last full week, Bush is shifting some of his energy to California, including a $5 million final TV advertising blitz and a two-day stopover this week in Los Angeles, Fresno and Santa Clara with Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The state GOP already has been running $1.5 million in ads every week, mostly in Los Angeles and Sacramento.
Gore is coming to California on Tuesday to appear at a rally in Los Angeles.
While Gore has otherwise ignored California in recent weeks in favor of more competitive states in the Midwest, Bush nevertheless is making only slight headway here as he tries to fill the attention gap with commercials and face time. Bush has gained only 1 percentage point from the Examiner/KTVU statewide poll last month.
Bush operatives and even some Democrats say Bush has a chance to take California and its 54 electoral votes, pointing to a decline in Gore's poll numbers in other state
surveys over the past six weeks. "That's the reason we're doing this right now," said Gerry Parsky, Bush's California chairman. "We believe we can win this campaign."
The Examiner/KTVU poll, however, shows Gore with support from 49 percent of those surveyed, compared with 39 percent for Bush and 5 percent for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader. Six percent remain undecided. The statewide survey was conducted by telephone from Sunday-Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Voters agree with Gore
A statewide poll released last week by the Los Angeles Times showed Gore with a 7-point lead over Bush, with Gore getting strong support among women and independents as well. Voters also said they agree with Gore on nearly every issue, except that Bush is more likable to those surveyed. President Clinton's popularity appeared to be helping Gore as well, the Times poll showed.
Other recent polls show the race closer as the Bush advertising campaign goes unanswered. The decline in Gore's support from this summer prompted Democratic Gov. Davis last week to summon Clinton to California to stump for Gore, Democratic congressional candidates, and to energize voters. Clinton is scheduled to campaign Thursday in Los Angeles and Friday in Oakland at a rally.
A low turnout among Democrats could significantly harm Gore's chances across the nation, given the enthusiasm shown by
Republicans this year. Unlike the 1992 and 1996 races, when then-President George Bush and Sen. Bob Dole failed to rally their party, Republicans see Bush as a winner.
"The only way Bush can pull an upset is California will have to have the lowest turnout of Democratic voters in the history of the party," said Del Ali with Research 2000 in Rockville, Md., which conducted the survey for The Examiner and KTVU. "Not only will Democrats have to stay at home, but conservative independents will have to vote in sky-high numbers for Bush."
But this is California, not America. If anything, the recent polls show how different the Golden State is from the rest of the nation, where one of the closest elections in four decades is shaping up thanks to fickle voters in Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and Pennsylvania.
Gender factor
National polls show Bush with a comfortable lead among male voters, but the Examiner/KTVU poll shows Gore in a statistical tie with Bush among men in California. The Examiner/KTVU poll showed Gore with 45 percent of the men surveyed compared to 43 percent for Bush.
Among women, considered the key swing vote in this election, Gore does far better in California than he is doing nationally. Fifty-three percent of women voters in the Golden State survey said they supported Gore, compared with only 35 percent for Bush.
The only significant area where Bush has taken a commanding lead in California is in the Central Valley and San Diego areas. While San Diego is traditionally Republican territory, the Central Valley has seen a more conservative shift in recent years - and Bush makes sure he stops there whenever he comes to the West Coast.
Bush has the least amount of support - 19 percent - in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles, both Democratic strongholds. Much of Bush's Bay Area support comes from Santa Clara County, where Silicon Valley business interests have been giving him record amounts of campaign contributions.
And unlike national polls, Gore is capturing a far larger number of independent-minded voters in California. The poll showed Gore with 47 percent of those who don't identify with either Republicans and Democrats, compared with 29 percent of independents for Bush.
The Examiner/KTVU poll was taken among 822 Californians who say they regularly vote in elections. The sample was divided among men and women, Democrats, Republicans, independents and third-party voters, whites and minority groups in proportion to their voter registration numbers in California.
Economy factor
On the issues, Gore does far better than Bush in California as well. Surveyed voters said they think Gore will do a better job managing the economy; dealing with the federal budget surplus; handling Social Security and Medicare; and, by
a huge margin, upholding civil rights laws.
On broader issues, voters surveyed said they think Gore will "be better able to provide a coherent vision for America's place in the world." And, despite Bush's assault on Gore's penchant for exaggeration, more voters in California said they trust Gore more than Bush.
Gore also has a lead among minority groups. Despite an aggressive ad campaign by Bush appealing to Latino voters, Gore received support from 66 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed, compared with 18 percent for Bush. Gore also gets 90 percent of the African American vote in the survey, and 46 percent of Asians.
"There is nothing here to make me think Bush can pull it out" in California, Ali said.
But Bush isn't the only one who thinks California is winnable. Democrats who know the state, including top advisors to Davis, have expressed grave concerns about Gore's slip in the polls and the relatively robust support for Nader, who takes votes from Gore.
Campaign spending factor
As the campaign comes to an end, Bush and Gore have about the same amount of money in the bank. Bush claims to have $22.3 million, compared to $23.1 million for Gore. But Republicans have $6 million more than Democrats in their party coffers - an advantage that could have eased the GOP's decision about spending in California.
"It's a triple-threat problem,"
said Davis' pollster Paul Maslin. "They've got more money. Witness Bush doubling their ad buy. They've got more energy; their base is more energized. And they've got a Nader problem."
Some Democratic insiders have suggested the entire exercise in California is fakery designed to get the Bush campaign to spend more money here.
Ali said Democrats themselves may be creating a crisis to force Bush to leave critical battleground states, while others suggest Bush supporters in Silicon Valley and California Republican congressional candidates fear they will lose without a last-minute boost from Bush - so they convince him he can win here if he just spends a little more of the money they so kindly donated.
Maslin doesn't buy it. He thinks Gore needs to address Bush's assault or risk a further slide.
"Right now, with Bush coming to the state with eight days to go, you have to accept that we're now past the point of playing smoke and mirrors," Maslin said. "This is real. You have to accept the fact that they believe there is an outside chance they can win."
"In some ways all this is good," Maslin concluded, "because this may snap people back to reality here."
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