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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4486)	10/30/2000 2:32:45 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 5482

How strange that you are angry at me, when I am in complete agreement with your post! Perhaps there is something lost in the written communication. As for my tone, I did not mean an insult to Will. But I wrote that post after having read a lot of posts on the net about how analysts manipulate the stocks and how stupid their calls are all the time. And personally I am tired of such talk. Like you, I don't believe that anyone or any group of people can manipulate a major stock for long. The stock will go where it will go regardless of who says what. How are we in conflict here? I also said that the market is smarter than all of us (myself included) and that we should not be surprised if the analysts don't make the perfect call at the top or the bottom. Which I think you also agree. Finally I criticized the average investor for assuming the analysts are a bunch of morons, b/c the average investor by definition is not a pro in the field (i.e not qualified to make such a call). So what is your bone here and which of your points did I miss? My other contention was that there are rules that most analysts have to abide by. And in the absence of solid info to the contrary, they cannot change their outlook. The analysts may feel there is something wrong going on, but as a rule they cannot just come out and say, "hey I built this financial model for this company and did a discounted cash flow analysis and estimated the fair value to be X. But now just because the stock has headed south I am going to back out of everything I said". The analysts cannot do so. But the market can and does. As a result there is often a discrepancy (sometimes very large) between the rating changes and the stock behaviour. This had nothing to do with JJ. It so turns out that JJ made the right call. Whether he used the circumstances to squeeze in the right call, or he took a chance to make a name for himself and got lucky is an entirely different debate. But either way, it does not mean that the average investor knows a lot more than the average analyst. Or that the rest of the analysts are oblivious to the price movements in the stock and merrily wait for a 50% drop before they down-grade. cheer up, ST