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Pastimes : MOLEGATE! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cisco who wrote (1559)	10/30/2000 3:48:41 PM
From: Cisco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1719

Why Hillary Will Lose She's ahead in the polls. So were Florio, Cuomo and D'Amato. Monday, October 30, 2000 2:05 p.m. EST The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton is almost certain to win her Senate race. The New York Times reports on "the air of confidence that has settled in around Mrs. Clinton's camp." Pundits are already speculating that she might seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 if George W. Bush is elected. I beg to differ. A careful reading of the latest polls shows that Mrs. Clinton hasn't yet shaken what I call the curse of the controversial incumbent. While it's true that it's Rick Lazio and not Hillary Clinton who actually holds elected office, pollsters agree that Mrs. Clinton's high profile makes her the functional equivalent of the incumbent in the race. One characteristic of controversial incumbents is that they seldom do better at the ballot box than in the final pre-election polls. In other words, voters who decide late tend to go against the incumbent. "If an incumbent can't close the sale by the end of the race and get over 50% in polls, it means there is real resistance to returning him or her to office," the late Everett Carll Ladd, director of the Roper Center, wrote last year. opinionjournal.com