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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (393)	10/30/2000 3:58:41 PM
From: teevee	Respond to of 74559

dale, You won't have to wait until 2001 if Bush is elected. IMO, a Bush win will take the Dow down to 6500 points. regards, teevee

To: Follies who wrote (393)	10/30/2000 4:13:02 PM
From: Dave	Respond to of 74559

"Has there ever been a bubble that did not end bady?" Not if you define a bubble as a temporary asset inflation that ends in a panic. :-) Anyway, I doubt it. Bubble dynamics are just too appealing to too many people to allow a sensible, gentle end. To have a real bubble, you have to have people over-leveraging and speculating wildly, and there's no safe way to deflate such leveraged speculation. A correction simply has to bankrupt the speculators. And when that happens, they have to sell off their other, nonspeculative assets, and that causes the general decline. "What are the best metrics to compare bubble size and how does this one compare?" I don't know about metrics, but I suspect that this bubble has more involvement by the general populace than any previous one. Like many historical bubbles, this equity bubble is accompanied by a financial credit bubble, and declining consumer debt quality. When the individual speculators begin to lose their shirts, the financial bubble will collapse as well, complete with margin calls, foreclosed mortgages, repossessions, homelessness, and a real estate price collapse. By the way, if you haven't already, you should check out "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation" by Edward Chancellor. It's a great read and provides a lot of perspective that should prove useful as this bubble unwinds. Dave

To: Follies who wrote (393)	10/30/2000 4:54:27 PM
From: Tatnic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

1) Has there ever been a bubble that did not end bady? ================= Well this one hasn't exactly been pretty, eh? Down over 40% from the bubble. Of course it doesn't mean we're done but one way to look at it is that maybe things have happened just as the FED has wished. What I'm saying is to not marry any one belief...the market has a way of breaking up such marriages. Oh yeah, check out the Dow...that's a pretty powerful looking chart. Again, short-term doesn't mean much but so far this whole thread's sky is falling message is just speculation at best. Still an interesting thread though.