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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (13742)	10/30/2000 5:45:24 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

gbh, show ne the industry growing 35% for the next 4 years. it is interesting that you show up always when lost of misinformation going on. I hope you cover you short positions. where have you been 3-6 months ago????!!!!!!

To: gbh who wrote (13742)	10/30/2000 6:06:31 PM
From: Tom Warren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

I get 61% cagr. Its only 3 years.

To: gbh who wrote (13742)	10/30/2000 8:51:24 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

the growth for WDM quoted, from $7.7B to 26.6B over 4 years, represents about 36% compound annual growth. Isn't this substantially lower than the projection from the March report? They're quoting DWDM transport technology and I don't recall what the earlier report said. I quoted fiber optics components and I've not seen the current numbers in that segment. There's a lot I don't have. For example, what part of WDM optical transport was included in the article you posted? Is that long-haul or metro or both? The initial rate of growth in long-haul transport is bound to slow down, but we have to ask if metro will pick up the slack or if there'll be a gap. I honestly can't answer this. I'm confident we'll see continued growth in components based on the expansions being announced by all the major players and I'm currently trying to locate a copy of the RHK report for confirmation. One thing is irrefutable: as networks move to higher-speeds and higher-channel-count systems they have to have high-end amplifiers, AWGs, network management systems, and other components and modules being developed by JDSU and SDLI. As soon as I get the RHK numbers, I'll let you know. Pat

To: gbh who wrote (13742)	10/30/2000 9:27:26 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

Here's the quote you may have been referring to: Let me refer you to the most recent RHK report on optical systems. I can't post the graph, so will explain what it says. In 1998 the over-all optical systems market was $10 billion. Of that Sonet and SDH made up over 3/4 and WDM less than 1/4. In 1999 the market grew to around $15 billion with WDM picking up share only slightly. By 2000 the ratio will be $23Billion with a 2/3-1/3 split. By 2001 the market should reach around $33billion, with SDH flat and WDM/Optical-switching only slightly lower than Sonet. In 2002 the story changes. The market will reach $43 billion and SDH and Sonet will be nearly flat, and WDM/Op-switching equal to Sonet for the first time. By 2003 the total market is estimated to reach over $50 billion with WDM/op-switching surpassing Sonet and SDH combined. This was taken from a chart so the numbers are not exact. Looking at another part of the report, received in March though I believe dated Dec. 1999, here are numbers we can keep in mind if/when we get the upgraded report. Keep in mind these numbers are for terrestrial only, not submarine: <<< Increase in key terrestrial DWDM optical component forecast total from $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in 1999 and from $7.0 billion to $8.2 billion in 2000. Change in size of market for DWDM components for 2003 from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion. Inclusion of data for AWG WDMs from 1998 to 2003. The 1999 total of $190 million will grow to $1.2 billion in 2003. Addition of market sizing for thin film interference filter (TF) WDMs for 2001 through 2003. Revenue for TF WDMs will reach $1.3 billion in 2003. Inclusion of revenue for other dense WDMs from 1999 to 2003. The 1999 total of $90 million will grow to $420 million in 2003. Further down: This research showed the WDM market to be larger than we previously reported, especially in AWGs. As a result, we increased the size of the 1999 market from $470 million to $610 million and the 2003 market from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion. The new forecast has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50 percent from 1999 to 2003, slightly higher than the 45 percent CAGR of the December forecast. We attribute this higher growth to an increasing shift to AWGs at 100 GHz. AWGs will become more popular as DWDM equipment manufacturers increase channel counts per system, because AWGs have the lowest price per port and the highest physical density of ports per unit. These favorable economics lead to a higher growth rate overall. . . . >>>>> Tuck these numbers away until we get something to compare them to. There's a lot of FUD floating around and I think we're both above contributing to the surfeit. Pat