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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (77596)	10/30/2000 6:43:11 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 95453

OT - Tech (Pretty good Street.com article on multiples etc) thestreet.com Two paragraphs pretty much summarize my position on techs (One more rally and then we go sub 3000) Why I'm more bullish than bearish NT... As Credit Suisse First Boston's bullish strategist Tom Galvin noted in a report today, "Sixty percent of S&P 500 stocks have fallen in October and 62% of the S&P industry groups are down. ...Valuations have been cut by 15%. PE multiples are the lowest in three years and the mutual fund tax-loss selling season has ended. Importantly, we are entering the best part of the year for money flows into equity mutual funds, and cash levels are already high. Remember, sell into confidence and buy into fear. Stay Bullish!" And then the LT bear case... (Slowing economy AND slowing cap ex on tech AND valautions are still high) For instance, the 12-month estimated P/E for the overall S&P technology sector is still about 30; it was about 14 in 1996. The P/E for the S&P's boxmakers is about 25, vs. 10 four years ago. And for the computer networking companies -- Cisco, et al -- the forward P/E is about 70 compared with 20 four years ago. That ain't cheap. (Only the S&P semiconductor equipment index trades at a multiple anywhere near its 1996 level) -------------------------------------------------- The music hasn't stopped yet, but when the data starts to come in for Q4 and Q1 we'll have no choice but to do some further "discounting".

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (77596)	10/30/2000 11:02:55 PM
From: CpsOmis	Respond to of 95453

Slider.....have you ever thought about having an "editor" review your posts....you could make a quick buck on your well known name.....sell a little pamphlet for $12.95 called "SliderSpeak: Trading for fun and profit, subtitled:...(Making $$ while making enemies and laughing all the way to the bank)" (VBG) I know a number of adoring fans over on the MEXP thread who need some pointers! Really...think about it...there were a few classic points in your last post: SliderSpeak:<<<I can not begin to tell you how often I have been chided for taking profits off of these legs, or let alone throwing in a few shorts... CosmoSpeak: the locals ALWAYS stone the prophets..in Biblical times as today... SliderSpeak:<<<<<You MUST be willing to step into capitulaion - into falling knife blow offs - you must... it's the ONLY thing that has consistantly worked imo; if one uses and fundamental valuation guideliness and any technical guidance to making that initial entry opp. CosmoSpeak: Know what its worth and buy a dollar bill for 50 cents when you can see them explaining their loss to their wives....or.."Buy fear, sell greed".... SliderSpeak:<<<This thread has been a great contrarian indicator and has been the antithesis posterchild of "buy high & sell higher" - as once all the "new names" arrived trumpeting the coming "higher highs" here - it was a sell signal. CosmoSpeak: Slider's observation has made me (or, shall I say allowed me to KEEP) a LOT of money!!! SliderSpeak: (this one needs to be on the back cover of the book)<<<Individual "trades" are about taking your swings; counting on your batting average - knowing that taking the swings - when you see "your pitch" is going to pay off on a percentage basis. You'll have some pop ups, some stikeouts and some Homers in the upper deck as well. - Trades, are trades - the batting average is what counts and money management is the most under-rated component to trading. CosmoSpeak...Its about the percentages..don't cry when you lose, because if you play the odds right you win 3 for every 1 you lose (VVVBG) ~ciao mein.... Cosmo