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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (61611)	10/30/2000 7:58:56 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

October 28, 2000 Market Overview: There's not much point in indulging in an orgy of speculation as to the market's next move. We'll know soon enough, with the first inklings becoming evident as soon as the end of the week. Mutual fund tax loss selling and portfolio prettification will be complete by the end of trading on Tuesday. We also will be entering a favorable seasonality period, one that historically runs from the end of October to the beginning of May. Throw in a couple of wild cards, namely a contretemps in the Middle East and a U.S. presidential election, and you have the makings of an O.K. Corral style showdown between bulls and bears. While the seasonality factor and the intermediate term technical charts favor the bulls, any late year rally we do see might not be as vigorous as what we've grown accustomed to. For one thing, all the major market indexes are underwater for the year, and so many stocks are sleeping in Davey Jones's locker that tax selling, by individuals this time, will likely persist through to the end of the year and at a heavier pace than what we've seen in the last few years. For another thing, there are those wild cards I mentioned. Be that as it may, it would appear that the market has seen its bottom for the year. Last week I predicted profit taking in the tech stocks and yet another retest of the lows, and the Nasdaq made that forecast good by shedding some 200 points on the week, and a great deal more on an intraday basis, with the most gruesome carnage coming in the optical networking space. But, also as predicted, the lows held, and we now can see a developing pattern of higher lows, which is something technical analysts like to see when they're calling a bottom. In fact, the Nasdaq may have put in a W shaped double bottom pattern last week. To remain one, the second bottom low of 3081 will have to hold. And we'll have to go on and take out resistance at 3535, the W's middle peak. Watch carefully. As for the Dow, it has benefited from the flow of spooked money coming into its more defensive offerings, and is now approaching ST overbought territory. But it's still looking positive on an intermediate term basis. One of my favorite buy triggers, an uptick in the weekly MACD histogram, was pulled last week. We have yet to see a similar buy trigger in the S&P, probably because the S&P has a far heavier weighting in technology. In sum, there are still a lot of questions overhanging this market, but we're starting to get a few answers. And we should have a bunch more by this time next week. decisionpoint.com

To: Les H who wrote (61611)	10/31/2000 12:39:15 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Market/Sector Breadth Journal: October 30, 2000 (3951 stocks) percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Oct 30 54 47 33 39 869 - 507 495 - 389 135 - 144 Oct 27 53 42 31 38 637 - 477 322 - 383 84 - 138 Oct 26 48 37 29 38 466 - 527 220 - 471 57 - 171 Oct 25 46 34 27 37 396 - 750 187 - 649 62 - 204 Oct 24 59 41 32 39 670 - 433 282 - 358 78 - 116 Oct 23 57 39 31 39 688 - 347 296 - 292 83 - 100 Oct 20 56 37 31 39 737 - 368 299 - 302 93 - 119 Oct 19 47 31 29 38 533 - 391 233 - 319 66 - 130 Oct 18 27 21 23 35 198 - 1145 112 - 993 29 - 400 Oct 17 27 21 24 36 189 - 1132 107 - 953 44 - 389 Oct 16 33 26 27 38 317 - 595 154 - 489 60 - 198 Oct 13 29 24 27 38 235 - 607 126 - 470 46 - 177 Oct 12 15 17 22 36 139 - 1953 85 - 1615 31 - 505 Nasdaq 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Oct 30 3081 51 41 26 32 22 - 18 13 - 12 3 - 1 Oct 27 3175 53 43 28 31 18 - 10 6 - 8 0 - 3 Oct 26 3167 49 40 29 35 19 - 11 8 - 10 2 - 4 Oct 25 3107 40 33 21 31 9 - 21 4 - 19 2 - 6 Oct 24 3353 66 48 34 36 14 - 6 5 - 6 1 - 2 Oct 23 3422 70 46 33 40 23 - 4 6 - 3 3 - 0 Oct 20 3456 66 45 33 37 24 - 4 9 - 4 3 - 0 Oct 19 3402 66 46 32 35 25 - 2 5 - 1 2 - 1 Oct 18 3139 30 22 20 30 7 - 19 3 - 18 1 - 9 Oct 17 3172 25 22 22 31 7 - 27 2 - 21 1 - 11 Oct 16 3249 36 25 25 31 13 - 13 4 - 11 3 - 9 Oct 13 3277 35 18 27 33 6 - 8 3 - 6 0 - 4 Oct 12 3004 6 10 12 28 0 - 57 0 - 46 0 - 16 S & P 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Oct 30 732 80 70 55 54 48 - 6 32 - 5 7 - 0 Oct 27 726 65 49 42 50 24 - 8 14 - 8 2 - 2 Oct 26 720 49 38 38 51 16 - 8 9 - 5 0 - 2 Oct 25 719 59 48 38 50 19 - 15 11 - 13 4 - 4 Oct 24 738 64 50 41 49 28 - 8 15 - 6 4 - 2 Oct 23 734 54 46 33 50 20 - 8 8 - 6 3 - 1 Oct 20 738 55 42 36 47 21 - 17 11 - 11 3 - 2 Oct 19 733 52 45 32 45 18 - 14 7 - 8 1 - 2 Oct 18 706 36 34 29 45 7 - 21 5 - 16 2 - 7 Oct 17 711 35 34 31 46 6 - 28 4 - 24 2 - 17 Oct 16 725 38 35 34 49 14 - 12 8 - 9 3 - 7 Oct 13 729 30 32 30 50 7 - 14 5 - 9 2 - 6 Oct 12 703 26 29 31 46 8 - 46 7 - 37 3 - 7 AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals) Unconfirmed Signals (US) market DJIA SPX OTC Universe OEX NDX ---------------------- ------ ----- ----- -------- -------- -------- Oct 30 10,835 1398 3191 38 - 62 0 -100 17 - 83 Oct 27 10,590 1379 3278 47 - 53 9 - 91 0 -100 Oct 26 10,380 1364 3272 53 - 47 12 - 88 0 -100 Oct 25 10,326 1364 3229 52 - 48 10 - 90 0 -100 Oct 24 10,393 1398 3419 46 - 54 11 - 89 17 - 83 Oct 23 10,271 1395 3468 51 - 49 11 - 89 17 - 83 Oct 20 10,226 1396 3483 55 - 45 18 - 82 17 - 83 Oct 19 10,143 1388 3418 67 - 33 22 - 78 25 - 75 Oct 18 9,975 1342 3171 84 - 16 58 - 42 71 - 29 Oct 17 10,089 1349 3213 82 - 18 54 - 46 71 - 29 Oct 16 10,238 1374 3290 82 - 18 54 - 46 67 - 33 Oct 13 10,192 1374 3316 88 - 12 71 - 29 78 - 22 Oct 12 10,034 1329 3074 91 - 9 73 - 27 92 - 8 October 30 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe 70 - 30 38 - 62 OEX 77 - 23 0 -100 NDX 59 - 41 17 - 83