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To: fedhead who wrote (32479)	10/30/2000 8:48:01 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Anindo, the CFTC(commodity futures trading commission) is publishing the data weekly, on Friday after trading. futures are a zero sum game. a certain position size has to be reported - the size of the reportable position varies from contract to contract. that way, three categories of market participants are being identified : two reportable categories (big traders and commercial hedgers) and the non-reportable one (by inference, small traders). the long and short positions of all participants cancel each other out - however, the net position can obviously vary from category to category. generally one wants to bet with the commercials - as they are considered (and rightly so) to be the 'smart money'. they have maintained a record net short position in the spoos (which of course means speculators are record net long) for several reporting periods now...actually for an amazing stretch - and the usual dip buying by this category has yet to put in an appearance. the net member buying/selling published by Barron's is a different cup of tea. first of all, the data are never less than two weeks old (da boyz want to show you their cards as late as possible....it's a small miracle the CoT's frequency was upped to once weekly), and secondly it is hard to judge such buying/selling of stocks due to the many derivatives related strategies these days. also, NYSE members have had some pretty long stretches of net buying this year that have yet to resolve in a general market rally...however, considering the huge sector disparities we can graciously assume that they mostly bought the right stocks for their own accounts. the futures are a more pure way to look at market sentiment however...at lows you normally see the speculator categories very bearishly positioned...and not record long.