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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (13759)	10/30/2000 11:07:23 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

ask yourself question, if research was wrong by 50% in 1999, forecasting 2000 demand, how can I trust it when comes to 2002+ forecast. Frankly, I don't put much credence in this report for the reasons you state. They were wrong bigtime (to the downside) in their 99 estimate, and that's why the stock went parabolic last year and earlier this year. The facts, though, are that their growth projections are slowing. NT is guiding a bit down on the top line. And plenty of major carriers are predicting slowing growth in their cap-ex. Yes, yes, I know, some of the RBOCs like SBC and VZ and even BLS, with zero local competition, and enviable free cash flow will be able to keep spending even more. But, it wasn't just these few carriers that got the stocks jacked in the first place. It was free spending by many, many carriers and CLECs that funded there purchases by selling stock and debt. And this money won't be coming back next year. The fact is that many of these companies won't be spending nearly as much next year, and many others will be more focused on returning value to their own shareholders rather than to those of its equipment suppliers. Does all of this mean that JDSU and NT and SDLI and others will go broke? Of course not. Are these stocks closer to their bottoms than tops? I sure hope so. As I've stated, I've recently started buying NT, and will start buying JDSU very soon. But, I also realize, unlike some here, that there are some issues with all these companies. And I think the first, is that the market simply won't give them the benefit of the doubt that they did 6 months ago, when they say things are rosy, when there are indications otherwise all around.