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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saulamanca who wrote (61619)	10/30/2000 11:12:51 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

I personally like a "final flush", it makes everything clear (at least for a day or two (g)), but unless it is followed by a good solid reading of money commitment (namely the tic reversing to more than 1000), I view the rally as an interim one. In all the many (wonderful) rallies we had from the late May bottom, the good run leading to the September debacle and even the mini rally to about 3450 or so on the naz, we never really got a strong conviction showing in the tic (it showed in the trin few times, but not in a sustained manner), thus all these rallies ran out of momentum, some sooner, some later. The same will be true, IMHO, with the Dow rally we just had (about 1000 points so far from the recent intraday lows under 10,000?), and eventually the Naz and Dow are going to drag each other down. How far? I know not, right now, I think that we will need to go to at least 2800 on the naz to develop the type of extreme readings that will prep the market for a good November rally. Will we get this? I was hoping, but we may very well go into a relatively tepid advance here preping us for another plunge to a low early in December. Once we get over seasonal strength late in December and early January, I fear that the weight of still overvalued stocks will create some very nice buying opportunities in growth value stocks (and I mean many good growth stock selling at under a PE of 10) next spring. Right now, I am still mostly playing the "raiding game". Zeev