To: Neil H who wrote (862 ) 10/31/2000 7:19:29 AM From: Shaw Read Replies (1) | Respond to Good post, unfortunately I don't think we will see the far lower valuations that we may wish for. Day by day Avanex is gaining interested investors that want to own this stock. This stock is becoming a key long term hold in its industry. I follow Avanex and all the other related optical stocks through out the 12 hour trading day. Ever since Avanex's conference call, you can see Avanex's stocks daily trading pattern has gained strength, where as other front runners have shown signs of relative weakness, when compared with their past trading patterns. Also in Niel's interesting post, you could take the importance of Avanex's technological developements further, like why did Avanex buy a holographics company. I don't have the answer, but I would venture to guess that there is much more to the possibilities that Avanex's technologies open up, than we are currently aware of. I do think the big boys want to own this stock cheaper, but how much cheaper we get Avanex from here is hard to figure. In the near term I will trade the stock, while I look for the best long trem entry point I can. The edge I have is knowing in my gut that, in spite of all the head fakes the big boys may put on in the futures market, they real want this optical stock, but just at lower prices, how much lower than 80, I don't know Duke. I guess its a function of the fear panic level on a given day and the amount of weak hands exiting the stock, and the entry point at which strong hands will buy back in. My point is that since the conference call Avanex is not seen as the same company it was. It was obvious that durring the call analysts and the like had a new level of respect for Avanex, because Avanex had concretely demonstrated the ability to carry out it's game plan, and in even ahead of schedule. The point is that there is growing confidence in the Avanex story. So with that back drop, its hard to figure how cheap the stock will get.
