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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (60370)	10/31/2000 9:11:12 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Equity Outlook: Although next year provides untold fundamental problems (and opportunities), I think we have seen the bottom for this year. The bottoming process became more traumatic (sorry; but things worsened in the Oil and Dollar markets as September unfolded). In my view the grinding tech crash of 2000 was completed yesterday, as many money managers who have been under water since March finally capitulated and sold their tech stocks to buy the old economy Dow and S@P stocks. The key to the Nasdaq here is CSCO where there is a lot of worry about its upcoming earnings report. The problem with CSCO is that they have spent to much time with security analysts rather than with customers. The fact that the Euro will not be allowed to drift much lower makes Gold an attractive investment here moving forward. The Dow has outperformed the NASDAQ basically because more of the bad or questionable loan or financial backing considerations are rampant there, as well as one other factor. That factor is the trimming of the customer bases for many infrastructure providers (not just telecoms), who are not having any big problems with their surviving customers (many of whom are getting the bigger slices of the pies) which currently creates a rolling adjustment phase. As that is worked-through, similar to the consolidation and then re-expansion of cable (in the form of a few large survivors) earlier in the last decade, I see a new (but more mature) growth-phase of the Internet, and a culling-out of the older or first-generation networking and optical stocks into a focus on second-generation players (individually or via mergers). I see no good fundamental reason to be bullish on equities in 2001; but I do see an intermediate term bottom in at this point and I think these markets will rally into the first quarter of next year before the selling resumes. This market is much more worried about earnings and a hangover effect from very over-priced markets going into 2000, than they are about which party resides in the White House. Both parties are tied-into the long-term well-being of the market since so many people are involved in the market and up to their neck in equities. I think the Baby Boomers may begin to shift their focus into more conservative holdings over a period of several years as they get older. However, if the modus operandi of Social Security is changed, or if we're getting a robust new cyclical bull (particularly in the 2002-04 timeframe), then the odds of the baby boomers being so worried about their technology holdings stimulating that kind of focus-shift will be reduced. I think Dow 16,000 or higher is likely in the 2004-2006 time period. Dow 4000 is clearly unrealistic, at least based on everything I know about this Economy, and of proactive Government (Gold Bugs refer to that as "manipulation", which is not evil IMHO). History argues not to get bearish in an oversold market at the end of October; and not expect perfect patterns, as if the market was some exact science, which it of course never has been, and never will be. That's precisely why it usually pays to sell the rallies at extremes and scale-in during periods of despair, which ideally were just concluded. The broad market as defined by the A/D line on the NYSE entered a Bear Market in April 98. This is why I can't embrace any new bearish views because they all presuppose that something new started this past spring.