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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jghutchison who wrote (9748)	10/31/2000 5:28:42 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

Jack – I cannot respond to the eps forecast, as I have not gone that far in my Ciena analysis work. But here is some perspective on the Q4 revenue per Ciena IR ($000,000) (Source for historical revenues: SI Profile – CIEN): Qtrs 1999 2000 y-o-y q-o-q q-o-q $ $ % Incr % Incr $ Incr ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------ Jan 100.4 152.2 51.6 7.7 $11 Apr 111.5 185.7 66.5 22.0 $33 Jul 128.8 233.3 81.1 25.6 $48 Oct 141.4 275.4e 94.8 18.0e $42e Year 482.1 846.6 75.6 n/a n/a Observations: I’ll start the only slightly negative interpretation one could make which is that growth may have slowed a bit in Q4. This year, the 18% sequential growth in Q4 (over Q3) would be less than in the previous two quarters – not low by any means, but lower than the sequential growth in Q2 and Q3. Ciena may be beginning to bump up against the law of large numbers. However, looking back to last year, the Q4-99 grew the slowest of any quarter sequentially. So it may be that Q4 is a generally slower quarter. However, that being said, $275.4 fulfills management’s statement that they would achieve a billion-dollar annual revenue run rate in Q4. It also fits with my feeling that they would be the $250MM minimum needed to do this by a bit. Also, the more than 75% y-o-y growth is terrific. Hope this is clear.

To: jghutchison who wrote (9748)	10/31/2000 6:57:40 PM
From: MarkC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

I'll double check the numbers again. My notes, which I'm staring at, say Q3 .19 on 233.3MM and .25 on $275.4MM (estimate). I asked some other questions and she emailed me the answers (see below). I'll email her and verify the estimate. Mark Thank you for your interest in CIENA Corporation. Per our phone conversation this morning, I found an answer to your question. You asked what percentage of our business was international vs. domestic. As of our third quarter conference call (8/11/00) international business in the quarter for CIENA was 30%. Which was up slightly from the second quarter (28%) and in line with expectations for the quarter. We do not break down our international business further, but I hope that answered your question! Let me know if you have any follow-up questions and I will do my best to answer them for you! Genevieve Polk