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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (59300)	10/31/2000 10:10:17 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi Bull RidaH; Actually, I've posted repeatedly that the reason I'm on this thread is so that I can say "I told you so." I design memory into products, and I've been doing it since before EDO. I've seen many memory technology transitions, and I know what to expect. So there are things that I can predict about the future that are very obvious, and I post them here. But knowing the future of a technology is not enough to make money trading the stocks involved. So I don't do trade based on my knowledge of this stuff. Okay, I've got some AMD right now, but that's pretty much the only stock I'm holding on fundamental reasons. Half the problem is that if you try to short these POS stocks you are faced with the fact that numbskulls like sylvester80 will buy the stock based on the assumption that if the stock is going up, the technology must also be sound. His kind of stock trading, multiplied by all the stupid people with money in the country, can bankrupt a short. I've posted repeatedly that RMBS is not a stock that anyone should short more than a very small percentage of their portfolio (i.e. no more than 2%). I've also posted that if Rambus does win all the patent suits, and collect the royalties on DDR and the controllers that they say they will, then the stock will be worth $200 to $400 per share. Given that kind of odds, why would I want to short it? Who knows what the patent office will do? My own guess is that the lawsuits will go against Rambus, but I've been wrong about that sort of thing in the past. For instance, up till the jury reported, I would have put money down that OJ would get criminally convicted rather than let off. The other half of the problem is that there are secular tendencies in the stock markets that mask the fundamental trends. The bull market has been long and strong, and it will take a long and strong bear market to end it. We haven't seen that bear market start yet, as far as I can tell. The long term trend is still up. Man, most of the longs are being awfully quiet this morning. They should be buying with both hands, I think, especially if they really believe all the BS they've been spouting for months. -- Carl P.S. Fortunately, there are ways to make fortunes in stock based on knowledge of memory design, but I have not shared that knowledge, nor am I going to.