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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (13801)	10/31/2000 3:27:31 PM
From: William R. Polk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Last night I read the Lehman Bros. report on Cisco that cause all the stir yesterday. The report refers extensively to a Ryan, Hankin and Kent (RHK) forecast report which, according to yesterday's WSJ, will actually be released next Monday. There are two portions of the RHK forecast report that I think might add something to the discussion here (which is first rate, BTW): 1) RHK's Estimate of North Am. CapEx spending by Customer type and 2) RHK's Estimate of CapEx spending by Technology. RHK's Forecast of North Am. CapEx spending by Customer Type (in billions) 1999 2000E %Growth 2001E %Growth IXC's $29 $37 28% $45 22% ILECs $32 $35 9% $40 14% CLECs $ 5 $10 100% $10 0% MSOs $ 8 $16 100% $18 13% Wireless $ 5 $ 8 60% $11 38% ISPs $ 2 $ 6 200% $10 67% TOTAL $82 $110 34% $133 21% RHK's Forecast of North Am. CapEx spending by Technology (in billions) 2000E 2001E %Growth Switching & Routing 16 22 38% Access 15 18 20% Voice Switching 10 10 0% Software 13 17 31% Property and OSP 21 22 5% Wireless 13 15 15% Optical Transport 21 29 38% TOTAL CAPEX 110 133 21% As you can see from the above, RHK thinks the total "capex pie" for N.America for 2001 will be $133 billion. This represents 21% growth which (and this is what 'spooked' the markets) is lower than some folks were looking for. However, you can see that within the pie the "optical transport" segment is still expected to grow a respectable 38% (Note: the WSJ has the RHK forecast of "optical transport" at $20.6B for 2000 and $29.3B for 2001 which is 42% growth. The Lehman report rounded the numbers which why they got "only" 38%.) Regards,