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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (77625)	10/31/2000 11:56:22 AM
From: ronayre	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Another view, this time from Market Mavens calling "a oil high"......pointing at the "tubes" ie: (LSS... MVK??) recent selloffs as the indicator. Interest Rate Watch The Fed Better Get Ready To Lower Interest Rates The Fed has done its job. Oil prices have likely made their highs. Gross Domestic Product growth has fallen by half. The new economy that was supposed to take us all to Nirvana is beginning to fall apart. Al Gore is beginning to trail in the polls. And the bear market in NASDAQ continues to grind. The big event is the top in oil prices. For those that don't believe it, we suggest a look at the chart of Lone Star Technologies (NYSE:LSS). This is a small Texas company which makes steel pipes and tubes used in the oil drilling industry. Lone Star has the knack of predicting the future of oil prices. The logic behind it , is that the smart money begins to note increasing potential demand in steel pipes and tubes, and begin to buy Lone Star before oil prices begin to rise. As the price of oil and the rest of the energy sector begins to rally, so does Lone Star begin to slow down. And when LSS stock breaks down, as it recently has by falling below its 200 day moving average, that means that the end is near. What it means is that energy prices will begin to fall, and that the recent bump in CPI and PPI will also falter. As the dot-com implosion's fall out settles, we should see increasing levels of layoffs and unemployment. And if there is a new party President after November 7th, we will likely see the Fed begin to talk about a stable environment, as long as fiscal responsibility rules. What that means is that if a new administration does not tow the line on keeping a balanced budget, there will be higher interest rates and they will be unpopular. As we've noted for weeks, the days of fast and furious growth just haven't been there, as the average maturity of money funds suggests that there is balance between supply and demand, as it remains at 50 days. Rising maturities usually precede falling interest rates. Bond traders are increasingly bullish having noted the signs of a slowing economy. Market Vane's bullish consensus for bond traders is 73% bulls. Eurodollar traders which are more short term oriented remain bearish. As long as the latter group remains bearish, the Fed is unlikely to act. All in all, this week's upcoming employment report should show signs of weakening. And if they do, this will mean that we are one step closer to lower interest rates from the Fed. Joe Duarte writes daily for MarketMavens.com. >>

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (77625)	10/31/2000 12:07:02 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

MVK risk is 13 n cng. May not get below the lo 14s. We'll see: Just took a nice net 35% intermediate term gain out of TCLPZ today. She popped up near her high for the year and I bailed. Also went from overweight to just a full position in MWP for another 30% net on that intermediate hold. That's corrected only modestly from it's high. Very happy with those results in light of the recent market environment. Taking those gains now also expands "the plan" to take advantage of the excellent buys that have just begun to show up during the past week, such as CRZO, MVK, ROIL and now OIL. Looks like another excellent year. Iso