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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Griffin who wrote (55296)	10/31/2000 1:51:31 PM
From: peter a. pedroli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

THE LIBS BIGGEST NIGHTMARE BUSH WINS IN A LAND SLIDE. CAN YOU SAY MANDATE!!!!!!!!!! realclearpolitics.com realclearpolitics.com October 30, 2000 RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92 We wrote last Monday that "Gore must make a comeback this week in the national polls, or the election will be all but over." A week later, the Vice President has failed to make that comeback. As a result, George W. Bush will almost definitely be the next President of the United States (90% chance or better). The size of the Bush victory is the only real question remaining . Since the first debate, Bush has been ahead by at least 2% in our RCP Tracking Composite. An equal average of the daily tracking polls over the past three weeks yields the exact same result. In the last week, Bush's smallest lead in our Tracking Composite was 3.8% and 3.1% in the five-way average of the daily tracking polls. With only one week left until the election, there is little reason to believe Gore will be able to alter this situation. In fact, the preponderance of evidence points to undecided voters having swung to Bush because of the debates, and this next week is more likely to see a continuation of that trend, rather than a move back towards Gore. What is going to change the minds of those undecideds who have already broken for Bush? The press routine that "voters are going to finally start paying attention" is nonsense. We heard that before the primaries, before the conventions and before the debates. The great majority of voters have been paying attention and have made their choice between the two candidates. The problem with the press is they either can't believe or don't like the voters' desicion. Right now our RCP National Poll Composite, which averages all the recent major polls, shows Governor Bush ahead 4.6% (47.0 - 42.4). The national press continues their charade of "it's too close to call" and "it's a dead heat" when an objective reading of the FACTS makes it clear Al Gore is LOSING. With even Newsweek and CNN/Time now showing Bush leads of 8 and 6 points respectively, it is getting very difficult for the press to continue the "dead heat" spin when referring to the national polls. With the national polls looking grim for Mr. Gore, the national media has turned their focus to state polls in order to perpetuate the farce that this is still a 50/50 election. This is a red herring. Keep your eyes on the RCP composites because they will tell the REAL story. If Bush can maintain his 4.5% lead in the RCP Tracking Comp and 4.6% lead in the RCP National Comp he will win in an electoral landslide. A conservative electoral estimate would call for a Bush win in the neighborhood of 350-188. However, we suspect Bush will continue to slowly extend his lead in the national polls as undecideds continue to follow the post-debates pattern, and break for Governor Bush. On election day, a very high Republican turnout coupled with dispirited Democrats and an energized Nader vote will enable Bush to carry Illinois, California, Minnesota, Maine and Delaware for a 446-92 electoral win. If the Gore campaign continues to implode, New Jersey and Maryland could also desert the Vice President. Do not be surprised to see the 1980 popular vote totals of 50.7%, 41.0% and 6.6% repeat themselves. In the unlikely event that Gore is able to close the gap to under 2%, THEN the state polls will become relevant. If that happens, America will have the "dead heat" race the media has been talking about and Gore would be in a position to accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But with no more debates and Gore unwilling to campaign with President Clinton, there is little reason to think the trend of this race since the three debates will change. Gore needed to change the dynamic of this race last week. He didn't, and now he is going to lose.