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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (61659)	10/31/2000 4:31:23 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I have concluded that charts and their associated tools (chart patterns, trendlines, candlesticks, stochastics, ADX, OBV, moving averages) do have predictive value (for me). Are you saying that it's a personal truth? I believe the root of our disagreement is your assertion that the stock market is a random walk. I've heard this before so I know it's not a new idea. But I couldn't disagree more. Since you don't know what it is, how can you disagree? If price were a random walk, there would be no need for trendlines because there would be no trends. Toss a coin, price goes up. Toss it again, price goes down. Price would never move much as over the long run, price would go up or down 50-50. Sometime I'll give you a chart of 10,000 tosses of a coin. It looks exactly like a stock chart. This proves you don't know what you're talking about. Centuries old Japanese Candlestick science would appear a fruitless development as a Maribozu for instance could have no predictive value with price up/down 50% chance. Candlesticks are worse than Eliades. Why would anyone think there is more information in price than price? That implies it is possible to get something for nothing. In a random walk situation, a White Maribozu should be followed by equal # of up as down. No one ever could have figured out such a stick is very bullish. I can't believe you're hoodwinked into saying these things. Consider, if there were more info in price than price, wouldn't everyone be doing Candlesticks? Candlesticks! You gotta be kidding me. I'm sure you dispute that tea leaves are superior to candlesticks. Additionally, I would be interested to know more about "universal experience is when you rely on stock charts, you lose. The rate of loss is a negative expected return of about -10%." So far, my experience this year is I'm up over 100%. Give the laws of probability a chance and you will discover just how interesting things are. It's a lock you will, because you're a sucker. You have mistaken nature for the short run. You have a terrible reality coming. Perhaps I do not fit in the "universal"? set although I would expect "universal" to be all encompassing. Perhaps I am extremely lucky to defy the odds so. Somehow, I don't believe I could achieve similar results in "Lost Beggas" however. As far as I know, there are no charts to beat the one-armed bandit. One could learn to count cards and tilt the odds a bit in certain games, otherwise professional gamblers would not exist, only professional losers. All the statistics that the brokerages won't divulge show the expected return from trading of the very best traders is worse than just about every gambling game in Beggas. Part of the problem here is that you don't know the theory of probability and its application in games of chance. I am just one person and this is just one person's humble opinion so you can take it with a grain of salt. It isn't worth the grain. It's proof you're a fool and I'm the last person you will ever encounter who is willing to tell you that, but you will find out on your own.