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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (13806)	10/31/2000 9:21:38 PM
From: PLeaps	Respond to of 24042

Thanks for providing up to the minute commentary. eom.

To: pat mudge who wrote (13806)	10/31/2000 9:51:21 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

Pat and all, a must read. Obviously bearish, but this is the thinking that is driving the optical segment as of late (except for today). Message 14698870

To: pat mudge who wrote (13806)	10/31/2000 10:37:18 PM
From: William R. Polk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Pat, here is the RHK forecast for global capex. Unfortunately I don't have a breakdown by technology (like I did for North American Capex)so I don't know exactly what the total global "optical transport" market is forecast to be. RHK Global Carrier Capex By Geography ($in billions) %Of Total 2000E 2001E Change Change %Growth North America $110 $133 $23 36% 21% Europe $ 50 $ 58 $ 8 13% 16% Asia/Pac $ 86 $ 99 $13 20% 15% CALA $ 20 $ 26 $ 6 9% 30% Subocean $ 20 $ 30 $10 15% 50% RoW $ 20 $ 24 $ 4 6% 20% TOTAL $306 $370 $64 - - 21% As you can see global capex is projected to grow 21% next year (same rate as N. Am.) In North America "optical transport" is forecast to be 21.8% of the total ($133B). Extrapolating to the global market would make global "optical transport" at around $80B. Regards, Bill