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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Shih who wrote (115418)	10/31/2000 6:55:22 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Andrew, in your best-case scenario for AMD, all four of these factors must hold simultaneously: 1) AMD's ASP rises to $100 (from $91) 2) AMD's production rises more than 50% 3) The market grows at a rate which is large enough to accomodate both Intel and AMD 4) Intel stands still Now here's what I believe: - #1 and #2 could happen, because AMD has control over those two factors. - #3 and #4 may or may not happen, since they are totally outside AMD's control. - If #3 doesn't hold, you can say goodbye to #1. - From my point of view, #4 is definitely not going to hold. Maybe that's why AMD stock is a far ways off from where the AMDroids think it should be. Tenchusatsu

To: Andrew Shih who wrote (115418)	10/31/2000 7:40:57 PM
From: John Hull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Andrew, Geez, as a fellow UofM grad I would have hoped for better analysis from you than this. I would have expected this kind of work from a Buckeye, but not a Wolverine. jh

To: Andrew Shih who wrote (115418)	10/31/2000 10:07:32 PM
From: greg nus	Respond to of 186894

SHIH, I'm an AMD supporter. Ramp forcast is too agressive for AMD. Given most of the increased production will come out of Dresden new equipment will have to be installed, calibrated ect. Then there is the impending shift in process technology from .18mu tp .13mu. Meanwhile Austin Fab 25 will undergo a manufacturing retrofit converting production from K-6 to duron plus the process shrink. My guess is your about 10 million CPU to high. You should be much closer to your number in FY 2002 when AMD forcasts Dresden to reach full production capacity.