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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13811)	10/31/2000 11:11:12 PM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi JWCB: How have you been? Long time no talk to. I'm spending considerably less time on the the threads. I hardly ever post anymore. IMHO, the large distribution tops put in as shown on many charts of the optical, networking, and semiconductor stocks are very serious barriers of resistance. If the above categories of stocks cannot break out over these resistance levels over the next few months during the supposedly up seasonal cycle occurring now, all these stocks are in deep doo-doo. I'm not forecasting nor suggesting that they won't. But in my commodity days of chart analyzing, these charts look stunningly bearish in nature. Sure we will have upward spikes lasting for a few days to maybe a month or so. But new highs have to occur to make the bullish argument. And even Joe Battipaglia, the forever bull from Gruntal, is stating that these stocks still have very high valuations. I truly believe that everything is a trade today. Not that the LTB&H philosophy won't eventually, loooooong-term, win out. But when you have stocks running 20-50 points in a few days, folks are going to take money off the table in a heartbeat. The immediate problem is that when some of these high fliers run that 50 points or so, we're right back to the overvaluation question. And it happens so fast nowadays that obviously there is a lot of fast money in this market on both the long & short sides. The market is a casino - it is not a legitimate market IMO. The fast money excesses, some day, will have to be wiped out. And when that happens, the last 2 months will be pale in comparison. For example, imagine the folks who bought, let's say 2000 shares of JNPR or SDLI today near the lows. Unfortunately, I was not one of them. But if I was, I'd be gone in heartbeat. Give me my $60-75K for the day and it's see ya. On to the next stock. It beats playing craps at the Bellagio. At the present time, I'm holding long positions for short periods ranging from a few days to a few weeks. And if I'm wrong, I bail without a thought. I agree with Greg in that it's all in the hands of the Fed. When they go to a neutral stance or start to lower rates, is when we will get the next true leg of the bull market. I've been reading all about capex spending and the implications for optical stocks, etc. There is no question that optical is going to grow. But I read an article in the WSJ (I'm sure other folks read the same article) that depicted a chart of capacity of bandwidth far outstripping demand for that bandwidth starting sometime in the 2nd half of 2001 and exponentially outstripping that demand over the next several years after that. I believe that's the bottom line of what Sagawa was talking about. IF that comes to be, Sagawa might just be correct in his analysis. Time will only tell. From an investment viewpoint, I'm much more interested in who is going to use that bandwidth, who is going to readily pay for that bandwidth, and who is going to make money via applications from using that bandwidth. And according to many research analyses, it's businesses that will be transacting trillions of dollars of business up on the net within the next few years. I believe, at the present time, although that could change in a heartbeat due to technological shifts, the killer app. is B2B. JMHO. I was doing research the other day oh CMRC. The revenue growth is mind numbing. In the Dec. quarter of 1998, CMRC did a little over $1M in revenues. In the upcoming Dec. quarter, CMRC is projecting to do about $175M in revenues. And they only have less than half their marketplaces or exchanges that have contracted with them up and running. Bottom line, I believe as an investment more in the use of the bandwidth via corporations than whether my neighbor is going do to video-conferencing or download a music file, or whether CIEN, SCMR, NT, CSCO, ONIS, CORV, etc., etc. is going to provide that bandwidth. Provide it they will - no doubt. But eventually it's the use that should provide the greatest investment returns. Jim, I wish you good luck. This is a wonderful and very informative thread. Always has been from very knowledgeable people whom I sincerely respect. Keep up the great work everyone. Good night. jmanvegas