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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (13816)	10/31/2000 11:38:57 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

David, You're very right. Many of the new style investors haven't experienced prolonged and sustained downturns. 2 months is nothing. There were some real claws to the bear markets in the 70's and 80's. However, I can't remember this many 100 point swing days for a long time. Extreme volatility makes up (so far) for duration, it seems. The worst condition would be to have months and months of this. Right now, it produces margin calls and some lost money. Months of this and they start jumping from 1st floor windows, then 2nd floor windows, then 3rd floor windows and finally penthouses....(it's a old WS joke...). That being said, at 2800 the NAZ would be -4 standard deviations from the mean, just as it was +4 at it's zenith over 5000 earlier this year. That's incredible divergence, statisically. So.....where to from here? Don't know. Need a bounce to the 50 day MA on NAZ, but with new warnings each day, there is less of a confluence of opinion on what's safe (other than cyclicals, which are only in vogue for 3-4 days every 4 months.....LOL). Steve

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (13816)	11/1/2000 8:57:44 AM
From: Liatris Spicata	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

David- OT- <<and no one who began investing in 'post-1960s bull market blow-off/1970s secular bear market' time-frame has direct experience with the current condition. This _is_ different.>> I respectfully submit you are wrong (except to the extent that every time is different). Perhaps you may recall a little unpleasantness in October '87. I got home that night, listened to Nightly Business Report, and thought, "Gee, I lost a lot of money today. Oh well, I'm back to where I started this year." (course I wasn't margined then as I am today). But I recall pundits like Ellaine Garzerelli saying, after the Crash of '87, how dangerous the market was and how individual investors should wait until the situation became clearer. Like a fool, I believed them, and didn't plow everything I could muster into the market at that time. But my point is there was a much greater sense of dread (with legitimate reasons, albeit different ones to today) in October '87- with many shallow comparisons to the Crash of '29 and the ensuing Depression- than there is today. FWIW, I recall JK Galbraith and Larry Kudlow having a televised discussion the week of Black Monday, '87. As I recall, Galbraith sneeringly said how he hoped that Kudlow was largely out of the market and what a bleak future there lay in store given the accumulated sins of capitalist excess. Kudlow simply differed and, while acknowledging the dangers of the stock market, suggested that was not a bad time to buy. If you wait until "the situation becomes clear" you will miss out on major buying opportunities (you may also avoid bankruptcy). Larry