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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doughboy who wrote (270)	11/1/2000 9:01:48 AM
From: Nichols	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Tuesday October 31 9:45 AM ET Estimate of U.S. Electoral College Battle WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The following is an estimate of the state of the battle to win a majority in the Electoral College between Republican George W. Bush (news - web sites) and Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) showing the two in a dead heat. This unofficial survey will be updated daily until the election on Nov. 7. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College and 270 are needed to win. States are assigned to Bush or Gore based on the latest polling data from Reuters and other public opinion surveys. If the poll has the two candidates well within the statistical margin of error, that state was assigned to the ''too close to call'' column. Bush has 217 votes solid or leaning toward him. Gore has 214 votes. 107 votes are too close to call. Bush leads in Alabama (9 votes), Alaska (3), Arizona (8), Colorado (8), Georgia (13), Idaho (4), Indiana (12), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (7), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (14), North Dakota (3), Ohio (21), Oklahoma (8), Oregon (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (32), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3). Gore leads in California (54), Connecticut (8), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (25), Hawaii (4), Illinois (22), Iowa (7), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New York (33), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Wisconsin (11). The following states are too close to call: Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (18) Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (4), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (23), Tennessee (11) and Washington (11). Changes since Monday: Tennessee moved from Bush to undecided based on a poll showing him only 4 points ahead. Maine moved from Gore to undecided based on a poll showing him only 1 point ahead. Oregon moved from undecided to Bush, based on a poll showing him 6 points ahead. New Hampshire moved from Gore to undecided, based on a poll showing Gore only 3 points ahead. West Virginia moved from undecided to Bush, based on a poll showing his 10 points ahead.

To: Doughboy who wrote (270)	11/1/2000 4:00:34 PM
From: Cisco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

I think Cisco was being a bit too much optimistic about Pennsylvania leaning to Bush. I may be. I re-evaluate this state daily. I am down playing the Zogby Poll currently because I believe it has a problem in its methodology in PA. I don't believe the vote has swinged 11 points in 4 days in that state. Zogby is also not tracking well with other polls in WI and FL. For example on the day that Zogby said that Gore was up by 7 seven in FL the LA TIMES said he was down by 4. In WI on the same day that Zogby said that Gore was up by 6 the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel said he was down by 7. Zogby seems to be having some problems.