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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (77674)	11/1/2000 8:43:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Weather notes & Christmas list, Seems like another meteorologist is keeping a "weather eye" out for the NAO this winter, link and excerpt from Joe Bastardi: accuweather.com What is interesting is the tendency, despite the mean ridge in the eastern United States, is the tendency for trofs to dig strongly southeast through the northeast United States, splitting the ridge, This may be a sign that the influence of a neutral or negative NAO, which correlates well to late hurricane seasons, may be a factor in the upcoming winter in the eastern part of the continent. One always has to be concerned though that the pattern that may be prevalent for several months may suddenly run its course, but as you will see in our winter preview, there is some interesting parallels setting up for the upcoming winter. In any case, this first storm will dance around the southeast ridge, but once we have the added influence of a colder air mass and a broader based trof, there is reason to be optimistic that wet weather will make it into the southeastern quarter of the nations next week, the exception being Florida. I'm dreaming of a White Christmas with a real big stocking by the fireplace. Big enough to hold a 50 buck barrel of oil? PS to Santa, Gold Bars at 380 an ounce may be substituted. Thanks Roebear

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (77674)	11/1/2000 10:31:58 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

It's all about valuation multiple contractions - stupid ...Altera, World Com today; something else tomorrow. Valuations - ie: multiples; are too high; much, much too high - period. Virtually the entire NAZ & the Tech Hi Flyers were priced for perfection; actually with $251 Billion of margin leverage "still" (not for long) in the market - they were & are inflated-levered & pushed; beyond perfection; but "perfection" has ended. We just had 3 major factors that required this contraction of valuation multiples. 1. 6 Straight Fed Rate Hikes ... a higher rate enviornoment requires the discount of both present & future earnings; ie: lower market multiples. Throw in a junk bond/capital access - liquidity crisis as well. 2. Weak Euro/King dollar ... a negative double edged sword here actually for which all "chickens must come home to roost" - ie: King Dollar attracted excessive foreign capital which in essence - created the same inflationary/levered effect of margin in the NAZ/HiFlyer Tech Stocks. Now the Crashing Euro has dramatically slashed the earnings of US Global Companies - which is causing all the warnings, misses & lowered guidance to growth. - you can't have it both ways & we're now at a point if the US Dollar moves "any" higher; the impact to US Corporate Earnings will be violent & the stress fractures King Dollar is causing in Foreign Currencies & markets is most ominous - not that anyone is heeding those early warning signs either ~ 3. Slower GDP Growth - "The Soft Landing" ...you can't maintain the same valuation multiples, growth, or earnings into a "Soft Landing" ...common sense and another double edged sword for the markets. Yes; the "Soft Landing" keeps inflation at bay (allegedly) but; it also slows growth, spending and ultimately earnings & revenue growth - which requires lower valuation multiples. It's all about valuations (multiples) - Stupid ... and the NAZ is going to continue to come down - the rate hikes require it, the US Dollar/Euro relationship requires it, the lowered guidance requires it, a soft landing requires it and gravity & reality require it. Out of curiosity; aren't the Nazaholics seeing "head & shoulders" charts in their sleep yet ? ... or; do charts, trendlines & technicals no longer matter ? Only the ESF is keeping this market glued together...post election; all the Kings horses & all the kings men; aren't going to be able to put the NAZ together again ... Get over it; put a fork in it - it's done ~

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (77674)	11/1/2000 10:43:45 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

US Dollar - catch 22 and gold has a "win-win" straddle here... George C - great article on the "Dollar" This pretty much drives home the "Catch-22" nature of where Rubin & Greenspan backed us into: <<...With the dollar already towering head and shoulders above its foreign counterparts, a full blown currency problem (or simultaneous multiplicity of problems) in the near future that forced the dollar higher would go a long way toward basically cinching a broad based corporate profits recession in the US. >> 1. If the US Dollar moves any higher - not only will US Corporate profits continue to fall to recessionary levels (they allready are) - but; the stress fractures all ready seen in other Global Currencies & Economies "will" erupt into another "crisis event" that will rock the markets. <<What is probably the single greatest and most important difference between now and the currency crisis periods of Asia, Latin America and Russia over the last three years is the emerging negative effect on corporate profits. >> Gold wins on any Global currency, or economic "event" and per that great "Rogue Wave" article - that's all Gold needs for the Derivative crisis to erupt. 2. If the US Dollar falls/corrects - Gold fundamentally wins and that win accelerates upon the backs of the repatriation of funds from the US Equity,Bond & Debt Markets that will surely arrive with a correcting dollar. Imho; this Catch-22 "straddle" that Gold in essence has here on the US Dollars moves; just reinforces this as a significant entry point & the compelling historic valuations make the XAU/Golds a portfolio weighting bet here and into any & all further weakness if seen. We shall see ~