To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (39032 ) 11/2/2000 2:40:02 PM From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976 Lester e won't be considered to win the Nobel Price despite the fact that his AMAT portfolio consistently Outperforms those of the so called Financial Wizards... Since the 70s, AMAT doubles every 2 years or so giving Lester e about 41% return every year. By contrast, the SP 500 gives about 15% a year to its investors. Why? That's because the Financial geniuses deem it Risky to hold stocks like AMAT, INTC, CSCO and other Hi Tech companies if not balanced by Bonds, Oils, Cigarettes, Financials and some other Companies that rarely moves Up or Down... One Hedge Fund which was designed by Financial Experts including a former Nobel Price winner (if I remember right) did so good for a number of years (about 15% gain a year, so Good to them for it consistently equaled and at times outperformed the SP 500) that the Designers of the Fund were believed a cinch to win the Noble Price some time later ... If only the Hedge Fund continued its winning ways . At the worst time during the East Asian crises, Greenspan saved the Fund from Total Collapse. I think it was liquidated later. (If only those wizards just put their money in the SP 500 and then pooled their Brains to device a way to tackle the problem of Greenspan : --- that by his raising interest rates, he has no choice but to put out of work again those Poor people too poor to complain, those poor that gained work thru the Administrations effort when the economy was Booming). Why is Lester e and other AMAT Long-term Investors better Investors. They believe among other things that AMAT will always double in price or Split its shares at least every 2 years. They believe that once a stock Splits its shares repeatedly, it will Split and Split its shares again in the future as long as the Company continues its winning ways despite undergoing alternating Boom and Bust Cycles in its Business. That's following one's Instinct or Common Sense --- something that the Best of the Best in Financial brains including Paid Analysts Ignore repeatedly. In the eyes of those who believe in AMAT thru Splits. Let's say they got 1000 shares to start with: --- 1995-96 1000 shares with price ranges from 59 7/8 to 21 3/4 … then after a 2 for one split ---- 1996-97 2000 shares with price ranges from 54 3/16 to 21 9/16 …then after a 2 for 1 split ---- 1997-98 4000 shares with price ranges from 115 to 40 1/2 Now the company could even split it shares again to double Investors holdings , thus: --- 2000- ? 8000 shares with price ranges of 57 1/2 to 20 1/4… So in 5 years AMAT is capable of splitting 2 for 1 --- 3 times! Take note that this downturn is the Worst for Hi Techs in a long time ; … but not for AMAT. Although AMAT declined worse by a percentage point compared to that of 1995-96, it fared better than say INTC and TXN. TXN declined 60%, a thing not experienced during the last decade. So is INTC whose decline in the past range from 30 to 40%… INTC's price ranges for a long time in the past from 70 /80 to about 50. How about now? It went from 75 to a price uncharacteristically so low to the vicinity of 35. .. Still, it's of little comfort to see AMAT declined more than 60% 3 times in a row, but Investors perception of AMAT as a Good Investment (CHIPS are not only for Computers now) is getting better and better. That, we have to admit.