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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pete Young who wrote (8978)	11/1/2000 1:24:53 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Pete, it's clear that changes in analysts ratings are lagging indicators rather than leading indicators for this sector. Rather than getting bent out of shape over this fact, one can just accept it and choose to not make investment decisions based on the changes in ratings. What the analysts might be providing that is more useful are the comments in the text that they write. What do you think about Deahna's comments that "We expect push outs and lower EPS estimates across the board. Over the next several quarters, we will likely lower numbers on most of the companies we cover." From my experience, when "pushout" appears in a company news release or cc, there's a big effect in this sector. Assuming he's wrong, you'd want to buy the stocks at these depressed levels. OTOH, assuming he's right, you can ask yourself whether stock prices of the semi equips already reflect forthcoming annoucements of pushouts, or will this sector always take a hit when the first pushouts happen? I don't know the answers myself, but it seems to me it's worth discussing. Those who've been through a couple of cycles before might have something to say about what happens when pushouts are first reported.