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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (7046)	11/1/2000 2:00:07 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Finally, you got to differentiate between "fair value" and market value. In a bear market you do not get to fair value and in bull markets you very often get exuberant over valuation. If indeed DDR will be the standard, and th bu$$ has the whole DRAM market, then I have for them about $6/share visibility in two three years and at 25 PE you get my $150. However, if we are in the midst of a DRAM glut and prices are falling, the bu$$ will be undervalued. Right now, unless we get before the end of the year a capitulation of Infineon, Micron and Hyundai, I would say that we have a shot at a max of about $75, if the naz goes back to 4300, I would add $10 to that. If before the middle of December all the Dramurai fold and Elpida (which I expect) comes to the table as well, we could have a spike to $120, but it will not hold long, IMHO. Zeev