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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (85441)	11/2/2000 12:02:16 AM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

That is yearly revs.

To: Ibexx who wrote (85441)	11/2/2000 1:08:52 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Neither projection is meaningful. Mr. Market will be looking at YoY pro-forma results. uf

To: Ibexx who wrote (85441)	11/2/2000 11:49:11 AM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Some thoughts about QCOM’s upcoming Q4 earnings. I used post # 85327 from earlier this week to update an analysis I’ve been keeping comparing FY00 to FY99. I also updated the FY99 numbers by going to QCOM’s site and under IR found a link to the updated quarterly proformas by profit center. Some interesting points as follows: 1. For QCT, I used the low of the estimate range for chip revenue ($253MM). To get the low of the range I had to use the low of Schrock’s estimated 2.5MM to 3MM fewer ASICs in Q4 vs. Q3, which is 12MM ASICs, and an ASP of $21.10. The ASP is lower than the ASP in any other quarter this year, and about 6.4% less than the ASP in Q3. What makes me think this is too low is that if fewer MSM chips are sold (due mainly to Korea), I would think the ratio of CSMs to MSMs would be higher, resulting in a higher ASP. For EBT I used the lower % experienced in the last two quarters (just over 32%, down from 36% in Q1). 2. I used the lowest revenue estimates from post #85327 for each of the other product areas and the historical profit margin. 3. I used a 38% tax rate for the quarter and ¼% (.0025) more diluted shares. 4. The result is diluted eps of 24.7 cents; 25 cents rounded. 5. Caveat 1 – The EBT % from QCT could be even less than 32.2% if expenses remained high in the face of lower revenues. Using an EBT % of 22.2% (assuming QCT expenditures were not reduced much), knocks almost 2 cents off of eps. 6. Caveat 2 – I set net other income /expense the same as in Q3, since I don’t have any specific information about this one way or the other. In Q3 the EBT was $24MM. While this may look high, I checked it against potential interest income. QCOM had $1.5 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of June. At 6% for 3 months, this would generate $22 .5 million in interest income. In any rate, $24MM is worth 3 cents a share. 7. Returning to the estimate in number 4 above, total EBT would be 51% and NAT would be almost 32%. A very profitable business! 8. Annually, the numbers are also very interesting. Apples-to-apples revenues grow by only 8.4% in FY00 vs. FY99 and NAT increases by almost 48%. Also, diluted eps increases by 8.2%. 9. Without going into all the details, if I use numbers that are closer to the mid-range of the analysts’ numbers, I come up with diluted eps of 26 cents per share rounded, which admittedly looks too optimistic. I will be sitting on the edge of my seat tomorrow around 1:30p (pst) and again beginning 2:30p <ggg?>.