Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (80)	11/1/2000 5:08:42 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95748

So if the pattern holds, we should expect a 5%~30% B2B increase in October. Otherwise more sinking. Any ideas when the October B2B will be announced?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (80)	11/1/2000 6:29:26 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95748

Actually Donald you significantly understate the seasonality shown in the numbers. Recall that I plotted those numbers graphically last week so I am familiar with the peaks and valleys of the BtB: there is an amazing consistency with which the BtB peaks in Feb.- Apr. and bottoms in Sept.-Nov. (1997 is the only exception ....a non-sector event influenced the cycle). Thus there is a very strong likelihood we are undergoing a bottom right now. In short, if the pattern holds, we should expect that the bottom has already occurred in Sept., or will occur in Oct. or Nov., and then a significant upturn will take place. The numbers you provide do not permit a more specific call for the nadir of the BtB nor do they allow for specific percentages being attached to the degree of the turn. Moreover, your numbers certainly do not permit, as some are stating, a month-by-month 'deductive' claim for the immediate future. As I said, the turn will likely be in September OR October OR November based on your data. Invoking other conclusions is positing one's own personal opinions and are removed from the objective stance you maintain so admirably on this thread. Scott.