Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RocketMan who wrote (61735)	11/1/2000 7:30:35 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

RocketMan OT Being guilty of the one who set off Hahaha....I thought I'd mention something I remembered when he mentioned the chart of 10,000 coin tosses. I can't remember when or where, but I have seen such a chart and it does look alot like a stock chart. As KymarFye mentioned earlier, there are up trends, down trends and flat periods. So guess what? I mentioned to him right away I use trend lines? Did he listen? IF EVEN RANDOM CHANCE TENDS TO TREND, then trendlines can be drawn and hence, trend-line breaks become buy and sell signals! Even if price action on charts ARE merely random chance in chart form (which you nicely point out is not exactly), trend-line followers still win. Still, a "kernal of truth" as Kymar points out does not excuse barbarian behaviour and only hides Dr. A's many outrageous and ridiculous statements. Two, really dumb-a$$ statements were mentioning universally that all traders are losers. He calls himself a stock operator for 32 years. I guess then he admits to being a loser. Secondly, his statement (among many others) that the only way to win is to HOLD.... How long? Forever? Then may I ask what his interest would be in the first place in Market Direction Discussion. Why would anyone care about Market Direction if they are only holding!! Price goes up, you hold. Price goes down, you hold. How do you win? There is no point whatsoever to following Market Direction if at some point you do not plan to buy or sell. So why may I ask is the guy stirring up sh** here? Bored? He's either a liar or likes to stir up stuff and sling insults. I learned long ago that rebuttles to argument in the form of insults and half-truths are smokescreen tactics often employed by drunks. If you had half a leg to stand on, why would you need to resort to such low-life tactics? I will go to the extent that IMO, he is probably intelligent (aargh) and knows a thing or two. But he has the personality of a porcupine.... So, yes, I agree with your post and Kymar's post pointing out similar observations that some of Dr. A's statements have truth to them. I did not disagree with all of the ideas he brought forth, only his use of them as nothing more than artillery for his foul attacking mood and smokescreen for his many other incredulous remarks. I appreciate your sense of fair play pointing out the correctness of certain statements he made. Regarding Dr. A? I think I know what the A stands for. Regards, Eichler P.S. I apologize to all on the thread who felt that whole discussion sullied the MDD thread. And to those who found some humour and found the uh...sidetrack amusing.....ROCK ON!

To: RocketMan who wrote (61735)	11/1/2000 11:30:58 PM
From: ru2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

SI: StockTalk: Market Trends and Strategies : MDD - Market Direction Discussion Reply to Post #61735 Since this is civil and polite I'll respond but I am not sure how quickly this will relate to market direction.Or Idea's that will makes us money. ######################################################### Ahhaha is right about the market fitting a random walk model, ########################################################## I'm not so sure about this. I did not read every lenghty post on this subject. My initial response to Haha was addressing Loud insulting arrogance sucking up bandwidth and hiding behind some supposed logical reasoning. that His "chart" of a 10,000 coin toss was "proof" that Eichler was wrong. I did not read every post since most of it seemed not to be anything that was going to give me clue to market direction or going to be able to add to my small bag of trading tricks. However until Kymar's post which I really did'nt read because of time constraints no one seemed to bother to define terms or explain what they meant by a 10,000 coin toss, except Happy. Happy gave equations that were clearly defined but wrong in at least one instance. x = x +1 , so 2 = 2+1, which is 2=3 well this is wrong but at least I knew that. I was not completely sure what everyone else was talking about. Kymar's post seemed well defined at first glance but as I said, I was busy as I ran into that one. Eichler PM'ed me and made it sweet and to the point. Take a coin. Toss it. If it comes up heads add a dollar if it comes up tails take way a dollar. I don't think it's random. I mean how do you gap down 5$ with this system? If every tic is one dollar away from the 2 adjacent tics, is this random? Still I saw the logic and it did seem to relate clearly to what people were talking about although I still was not %100 sure what that was since the word random was used so much when it did not apply. As in this example above. So using this model I am wondering if anyone would argue that 10,000 coin tosses would ever look like a chart of a market leader such as JNPR from the New years 2000 to date. There were some clear long term trends with JNPR. Would a coin toss chart as Eichler described ever produce such a long term trend? I can see it producing relatively short term trends. 5 tails in a row 2 heads then 7 tails in a row, 3 heads then 6 tails That would be a clear short term down trend. Maybe even a tradeable one. But would anyone argue that the long term trend, say 100 or more tosses would be anything but sideways action? I have never done it so I can't know for sure. I think not. Although interesting I am not so sure how this relates MEANINGFULLY to market direction since the markets are so manipulted anyway. I' rather listen to Bearra talk about the rydex ratio or talk about why gaps are so often filled or why fib retracements seem to work so well on ALL time frames. Or what the heck are stochastics anyway and why do dey work? BWDIK Ru2