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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RocketMan who wrote (61738)	11/1/2000 9:01:52 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Just quickly: I wasn't trying to suggest that random chance tends to trend, only that it can appear to do so. The kernel of truth is that it is very easy to persuade oneself that one has discerned a pattern where no true causality or even correlation exists. The statement about LTB&H being the "only proven way to beat the system" bears further discussion, however. I think many of us know individuals who have made a living trading, and a few who have done quite well. Such anecdotal evidence disproves the absolutist statement that "all traders lose," but does not suggest that the effort itself is more or less rational than any other form of gambling. Mr. A would say, no doubt, that successful traders are mere outliers of the normal distribution - lucky, not good. By the same token, however, the fact that the majority or even the vast majority of traders fail in the long-term cannot be seen as proof of the impossibility of effective technical trading. I have seen statistical evidence and other work on trading systems (based, e.g., on intermarket analysis, options pricing models, and even the proper management of more simple and conventional "technical" indicators) outperforming LTB&H, even when the latter is presented in the abstract or idealized form that it usually is. The goal for traders, after all, isn't to produce a trading machine that would be wildly profitable in all conceivable market conditions (the famous Holy Grail), but a method and practice that's profitable, and suitable to the real needs of individuals, under actual, unfolding market conditions.