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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (61749)	11/4/2000 2:35:44 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Re:" Impossible for Bear Market ", " if interest rates <8%". Really? Japan last 5 years = Bear Market with Interest rates at 0.5% . It's called deflation. There are three major diseases that affect markets: a] Inflation b] Deflation c] A mixture of the two. Looks to me like we are going to get c], My 2c. Any comments? TA =========================================== Message #61749 from David Howe at Nov 2, 2000 8:39 AM Looks to me as though Don Hays is losing it. There's no reason for a bear market at this time. My understanding is that it would be VERY rare for a true bear market to develop with interest rates below 8%. LT rates are under 6% so we are a long ways from that point. Investors still find equities to be a better bet than bonds at these rates. That's an important factor. Another consideration is basic supply and demand. There are considerable inflows into the market. Demographics indicate that this will continue for another decade at least. This alone should keep the bull alive. Sector rotation is likely and that's what we've seen this year. Money has moved out of tech. That might continue, but not until they've moved higher than today's levels. I'm betting on a rally until December. Another rotation out of tech might occur at that time. JMHO Dave