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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (77737)	11/2/2000 11:06:48 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike be nimble, Mike be quick... re: "the short term" Glad to hear that you're thinking in the "short term" (VBG). In a nutshell - surely the NAZ has some "tradeable" moves here - just imho; it's not a savy risk vs reward point in the market to even "Trade" the NAZ. The Street is "clearly" - STILL trying to get a grasp on where to lower guidance... companies don't know, we've got over capacity, we've got crashing cap ex spending , inaccesable capital markets, a junk bond crisis, a slowing economy/GDP and individual companies - STILL blowing up 30-50% overnight.... untill "that" type of volatility comes to an end - this is not a rational market and it's a casino, not a market as far as trading goes. When the Street finally gets a handle on where to move 2001 earnings & revenue growth estimates; when it gets a handle on the capital markets - when companies start hitting the numbers again vs. missing and most importantly - when misses of single digit proportions start leading to more "rational" 3-5-7% sell offs in "name" sector leaders; then & only then would the market be tradeable, or investable... untill that "rational" reaction to both earnings upside surprises AND misses returns - it's gambling at the Golden Nugget Casino - nothing more, nothing less. Mike; just too much liquidity / margin leverage that must and will be removed from this market. Untill that is done - no reason to try to keep trading the up 500 , but down 700 types of moves ? The ESF really does exist contrary to the opinion of many and their - "Job 1" of late has been to absolutely make sure that the US Dollar & Equity Markets do NOT go into a sell off frenzy, correction, or melt down prior to the US Election - period. Let the ESF step out of the picture post-election and then lets see where the market takes us... Actually imho; the market will do Greenspans work for him in taking out much of that margin leverage that MUST be taken out. That risk in the overall market - into falling GDP & Productivity slow down is also what is over-hanging the upside to the Oilpatch here. Simply not a market where the risk vs reward odds are great imo... I'm approx 30% Oils, 35% Golds and 35% cash here - no shorts; not yet; but let the SOX, the QQQ's, or especially the Bio-Not index ramp on what I think will be the "LAST" euphoric ramp in this NAZ-Bull and I'll be a strong short. Keeping stops on all my Oil's as the fundamental earnings upside story is potentially capped by the Oil Majors delaying the Major Cap Ex projects potentially as late as Q3 next year - as they just may have learned their Asian Contagion lessons well... they may wait to see where the US Economy and Crude Prices "land" in 2001 before releasing the Cap Ex flood gates necessary to take the Oilpatch to any new higher trading range here. I think the Oilpatch momenteum gets stalled/delayed here and that delay vacumn - usually gets filled by profit taking & selling. The danger is this wait & see game by the Majors; as to "how soft - the soft landing" is - may last for months and Qtrs yet & we could see an OCT 97 type of shakeout from OSX 140 all the way down to OSX 80ish again - just from impatience & the loss of momenteum that the Majors have created here by waiting to guage that "soft landing". I think to successfully trade, let alone buy & hold the rest of the Oilpatch cycle here; one must think like the Majors think & predict what they shoud & will do... Imo - I think they delay significantly, perhaps untill late next year the type of cap ex $ necessary to both support the OSX here , let alone to rally us to the next level. Mid Qtr info on the Driller Rig Utilaztion Momenteum & especially the dayrate momenteum on contract rollover is going to tell us is the earnings & cap ex momenteum is adequate to both support us here and to take us to the next level. I think we have to see how "soft, the soft landing" becomes next year before we know if there is a significant remaining leg to this Boom... untill then; it may be smart to just be "half" in here with cash to either ride a fundametnally supported breakout, to have stops trigger an exit so one may re-buy, or average into an Oct 97 type of shakeout correction. Reward-wise; in the nearterm - the next 2 mos; there is nothing other than an Oil spike from a Mid East event to break the Oils to a higher trading range & I think we've seen these "events spikes" as selling opps of late. I don't think the OSX can move thru 140 and sustain itself above OSX 150 because of a temporary Mid East event that spikes Crude for a few days. The Big & Easy Money has allready been made in both the NAZ and the Oils... perhaps permanently in the NAZ and at least for now - in the Oils... I'd settle for a nice little trading pop in the oils here from 115 to 130ish & I'd be a profit taker there for now...and I'd sit and wait for an individual blow up like NSS-MVK, or wait to see if we get a normal winter & thus a selloff from those who are here playing the potential of a NG, or Oil supply crisis ... I still love the Golds into "all" weakness here; but with having a "clue" as far as building a position. I'll add anotehr 10-20% weighting for each new 5-7 point range the XAU penetrates to the downside. Again; I'd love to have the opportunity to average down & catch a falling knife at XAU 30-35... love to.... Just waiting for Soros & some Hedge Funds to short the Dollar/Long the Euro here... and/or, run the Gold & Silver shorts... Heard Buffet still has lots of silver buried under the infield at Rosenblatt Stadium in Omaha (VBG).... I guess "his" mattress wasn't big enough ~