November 02, 2000
PARTISAN ENTHUSIASM
Republicans Claim an Edge: A Will to Win
By RICHARD L. BERKE
The New York Times
WAUKESHA, Wis., Oct. 30 — Of all the factors driving voters to the polls next week, Republicans say they expect their candidate to benefit most from an intangible advantage: Republicans are far more energized about Gov. George W. Bush than Democrats are about Vice President Al Gore.
There is significant evidence to back up that assertion by Republicans, including polls, voter interviews and observations even of Democrats in closely contested states.
Republicans are united, enthusiastic and perhaps more likely to vote, not necessarily because they think Mr. Bush is an ideal candidate but because they are determined to win back the White House after eight years, and they share a collective scorn for the Clinton administration. Moreover, enthusiasm on the Democratic side has been dampened because Democrats lack the motivation of having to take back a White House out of their party's control and are more conflicted over their standard bearer, Mr. Gore.
"Republicans have an enemy: they hate Clinton so they're taking it out on Gore," said Senator John B. Breaux, Democrat of Louisiana. "If you really dislike the people you're running against, it makes it easy to get fired up."
Gov. Gray Davis of California, a Democrat, put it this way: "I remember how we felt in 1992. We'd been frozen out for 12 years. We saw a chance to win back the White House, and we were motivated beyond belief. We could finally return to the promised land."
The gap in intensity between Democrats and Republicans has been apparent all year. It explains why Republicans were far swifter than Democrats this summer in rallying behind their nominee.
Republicans also expect to build on their traditional edge in turnout with a huge get-out-the-vote operation, and the party is pouring tens of millions of dollars into swamping the Democrats in voter-outreach programs. The Gore campaign, of course, has its own weapons in the battle to get voters to the polls, from enormous turnout operations organized by labor unions to potent support from African-American groups.
Yet the Democrats' worries about intensity have left the Gore campaign to try to manufacture excitement by sending big-name entertainers and Democratic luminaries to rallies to attract crowds and publicity.
"We're obviously trying to create a frenzy of excitement and activity going into this last weekend going into these target states," said Michael Whouley, Mr. Gore's top strategist at the Democratic National Committee. "We're saturating these markets with surrogates. We have to create a sense of excitement."
Here in this city west of Milwaukee, the Gore campaign attracted thousands of people to a rally on Monday night. In fact, many in the audience — even those excitedly waving green "Gore Country" placards — were not there for the vice president but for the opening act, the rock star Jon Bon Jovi, who introduced "the next president of the United States."
"I wanted to see Bon Jovi," said Josh Gresl, 21, a clerk in an antiques store. "I wish Bon Jovi was running for president. Unfortunately, it is Gore."
While Mr. Bon Jovi helped attract a crowd, Mr. Gore, in an interview before the event here, contended that the turnout for his appearances at other events without celebrities had swelled. Indeed, Mr. Gore has enjoyed impressive crowds in recent days, including an estimated 30,000 at an event last week in Madison, Wis.
"These crowds have been very large and very enthusiastic," he said. "And it's real. They are really fired up."
Before the rally here on Monday night, Mr. Gore dashed to the front seat to peer out the window as his campaign bus drew close. "Eleven- thousand, six hundred!" he exclaimed. "And they're turning people away!" Mr. Gore was so impressed that he joked that he would reward his Wisconsin campaign director, Teresa Vilmain, by appointing her secretary of state.
Still, the contrast in energy between Democratic and Republican partisans is unmistakable, and underscored in several polls.
[A survey released by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press on Wednesday found that nearly two-thirds of Bush voters said they strongly supported him, while just over half of the Gore backers strongly supported their candidate. The poll also concluded that a significant portion of Democrats were downright demoralized. The percentage in the party that expects a Bush victory has grown to 25 percent from 13 percent in early October.]
Another poll, conducted in late October by The New York Times and CBS News, found that 52 percent of Mr. Bush's backers said they were "enthusiastic" about his candidacy, while only 38 percent of Mr. Gore's supporters said that of the vice president.
"Democrats should be scared to death that they cannot win the ground war the way they did in '98 because of Democrats' lack of enthusiasm about Gore," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.
Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief strategist, said the Gore campaign was smart to try to keep President Clinton under wraps because, while the president might embolden minority voters and other hard-core Democrats, his presence only motivates Republicans.
"He energizes our base," Mr. Rove said. "He sucks the oxygen right out of Gore's operation, and Gore falls right back into the shadows."
Republicans are also moving aggressively to fire up Bush supporters. At a Bush event in Milwaukee last week, Republicans filled a sports arena and sought to create drama by darkening the hall, flashing strobe lights and smothering the audience in balloons and confetti after Mr. Bush spoke.
Even so, Republicans seem to be having an easier time generating excitement and interest.
"I haven't seen that kind of enthusiasm since 1980, when Ronald Reagan came and was able to energize the crowd like George W. Bush," said Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, a Republican. "I'm sensing the same kind of real fervent emotional enthusiasm that we saw at that rally. You really don't get that often. The real proof is that we can't keep enough yard signs. We've got to raise money to print more."
Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, a Republican, said the intensity within his party was far more palpable than four years ago. "I consider Bob Dole a great friend, a great American, a great patriot," Mr. Ridge said. "The crowds for him were fairly large. They were respectful. They were polite. But the crowds for George are just bigger. They're more enthusiastic. You feel it."
The Bush campaign is also buoyed by a common wisdom that voters who decide late in a race usually break against the party in the White House. In 1996, voters who made up their mind in the last few days went 38 percent to Bob Dole and 35 percent for Mr. Clinton, according to surveys of voters leaving polling stations. In 1992, they went 37 percent for Mr. Clinton, then the challenger, and 33 percent for the incumbent, President George Bush. And in 1988, 54 percent went for Michael S. Dukakis and 44 percent for Mr. Bush, who was then vice president.
The Gore campaign countered that more undecided voters are women — and that the vice president enjoys an edge among women.
"I don't think the conventional wisdom holds true," Mr. Whouley said. "You look at the internals in all these polls, it's heavily women. They heavily agree with all of Gore's positions on education. I think they're going to break toward us."
The excitement among die-hard Republicans was evident one recent afternoon at the Saginaw County Republican headquarters in Michigan. The office was bustling as several elderly volunteers fielded telephones calls and made their own calls, urging partisans to vote.
"The excitement seems to be mounting," said Dee Kluck, a volunteer. "We're giving out signs like crazy, like we never have before. We're just all working so hard."
That does not mean there is not genuine excitement among some Democrats for Mr. Gore.
Joel Miller, 18, said he drove from Milwaukee to the rally here not for Mr. Bon Jovi but to see Mr. Gore. Still dazed moments after shaking the vice president's hand, Mr. Miller said, "I shook the hand of the man who's going to be the most powerful man in the world!"
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