Fired-up GOP may give Bush win
Demos admit they aren't as keen about Al Gore
By Richard L. Berke
New York Times News Service
WAUKESHA, Wis. — Of all the factors driving voters to the polls next
week, Republicans say they expect their candidate to benefit most from an
intangible advantage: Republicans are far more energized about Gov.
George W. Bush than Democrats are about Vice President Al Gore.
There is significant evidence
to back up that assertion by
Republicans, including polls,
voter interviews and
observations even of Democrats
in battleground states.
Republicans are united,
enthusiastic and perhaps more
likely to vote, not necessarily
because they think Bush is an
ideal candidate but because they
are determined to win back the
White House after eight years,
and they share a collective scorn
for the Clinton administration.
Moreover, enthusiasm on the
Democratic side has been
dampened because Democrats lack the motivation of having to take back a
White House out of their party's control and are more conflicted over their
standard bearer, Gore.
"Republicans have an enemy: They hate Clinton, so they're taking it out
on Gore," said Sen. John B. Breaux, D-La. "If you really dislike the people
you're running against, it makes it easy to get fired up."
Gov. Gray Davis of California, a Democrat, put it this way: "I
remember how we felt in 1992. We'd been frozen out for 12 years. We saw
a chance to win back the White House, and we were motivated beyond
belief. We could finally return to the promised land."
The gap in intensity between Democrats and Republicans has been
apparent all year. It explains why Republicans were far swifter than
Democrats this summer in rallying behind their nominee.
Republicans also expect to build on their traditional edge in turnout
with a massive get-out-the-vote operation, and the party is pouring tens of
millions of dollars into swamping the Democrats in voter-outreach
programs. The Gore campaign, of course, has its own weapons in the battle
to get voters to the polls, from enormous turnout operations organized by
labor unions to potent support from African-American groups.
Yet the Democrats' worries about intensity have left the Gore campaign
trying to manufacture excitement by sending big-name entertainers and
Democratic luminaries to rallies to attract crowds and publicity.
"We're obviously trying to create a frenzy of excitement and activity
going into this last weekend going into these target states," said Michael
Whouley, Gore's top strategist at the Democratic National Committee.
"We're saturating these markets with surrogates. We have to create a sense
of excitement."
Here in this town west of Milwaukee, the Gore campaign attracted
thousands of people to a rally Monday night. However, many in the
audience — even those excitedly waving green "Gore Country" placards —
were not there for the vice president but for the opening act, the rock star
Jon Bon Jovi, who introduced "the next president of the United States."
"I wanted to see Bon Jovi," said Josh Gresl, 21, a clerk in an antiques
store. "I wish Bon Jovi was running for president. Unfortunately, it is
Gore."
While Bon Jovi helped attract a crowd, Gore, in an interview before the
event here, contended that the turnout for his appearances at other events
without celebrities had swelled. Indeed, Gore has enjoyed impressive
crowds in recent days, including an estimated 30,000 at an event last week
in Madison, Wis.
"These crowds have been very large and very enthusiastic," he said.
"And it's real. They are really fired up."
Before the rally here on Monday night, Gore excitedly dashed to the
front seat to peer out the window as his campaign bus drew close.
"Eleven-thousand, six hundred!" he exclaimed. "And they're turning people
away!" He was so impressed that he joked that he would reward his
Wisconsin campaign director, Teresa Vilmain, by appointing her secretary
of state.
Still, the contrast in energy between Democratic and Republican
partisans is unmistakable and underscored in several polls. A survey
released on Wednesday by the Pew Research Center for the People and the
Press found that nearly two-thirds of Bush voters said they strongly
supported him, while just over half of the Gore backers strongly supported
their candidate. The poll also concluded that a significant portion of
Democrats were downright demoralized. The percentage in the party that
expects a Bush victory has grown to 25 percent from 13 percent in early
October.
Another poll, conducted in late October by The New York Times and
CBS News, found that 52 percent of Bush's backers said they were
"enthusiastic" about his candidacy, while only 38 percent of Gore's
supporters said that of the vice president.
"Democrats should be scared to death that they cannot win the ground
war the way they did in '98 because of Democrats' lack of enthusiasm
about Gore," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.
Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist, said the Gore campaign was smart to
try to keep President Clinton under wraps because, while he might
embolden minority voters and other hard-core Democrats, his presence
only motivates Republicans.
"He energizes our base," Rove said. "He sucks the oxygen right out of
Gore's operation, and Gore falls right back into the shadows."
Republicans are also moving aggressively to charge up Bush supporters.
At a Bush event in Milwaukee last week, Republicans filled a sports arena
and sought to create drama by darkening the hall, flashing strobe lights
and smothering the audience in balloons and confetti after Bush spoke.
Even so, Republicans seem to be having an easier time generating
excitement and interest. "I haven't seen that kind of enthusiasm since 1980,
when Ronald Reagan came and was able to energize the crowd like George
W. Bush," said Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, a Republican. "I'm
sensing the same kind of real fervent emotional enthusiasm that we saw at
that rally. You really don't get that often. The real proof is that we can't
keep enough yard signs. We've got to raise money to print more."
Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, a Republican, said the intensity
within his party was far more palpable than four years ago. "I consider Bob
Dole a great friend, a great American, a great patriot," he said. "The crowds
for him were fairly large. They were respectful. They were polite. But the
crowds for George are just bigger. They're more enthusiastic. You feel it."
The Bush campaign is also buoyed by a common wisdom that voters who
decide late in a race usually break against the party in the White House. In
1996, voters who made up their mind in the last few days went 38 percent
to Bob Dole and 35 percent for Clinton, according to surveys of voters
leaving polling stations. In 1992, they went 37 percent for Clinton, then the
challenger, and 33 percent for the incumbent, President George Bush. And
in 1988, 54 percent went for Gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and
44 percent for Bush, who was then vice president.
The Gore campaign countered that more undecided voters are women
— and that the vice president enjoys an edge among women.
"I don't think the conventional wisdom holds true," Whouley said. "You
look at the internals in all these polls, it's heavily women. They heavily
agree with all of Gore's positions on education. I think they're going to
break toward us." |
