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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (60019)	11/2/2000 8:38:29 PM
From: Don Green	Respond to of 93625

Positive Signs Seen for DRAM Makers 2000/10/22(Sun) 17:16 Positive Signs Seen for DRAM Makers It was bound to happen. They could not keep falling forever, and there are signs everywhere that the worst is over for DRAM (dynamic random access memory) producers. Throughout last week and the week before, the prices of 64 megabit DRAMs kept falling, finally dropping past $5, to what some experts say are the production costs for some makers. However, prices on the international spot market were stabilizing Friday at $4.71-$4.99 for the synchronous DRAMs used in PC100s, which are personal computers with processing speeds of higher than 100 megahertz, and $5.45- $5.78 for PC133s. Also encouraging was the fact that the prices of the 128M units, which will soon be the market standard, were also hovering around $13.35-$14.15, considerably more than double those of the 64M units. As if to testify to the possibility of a turnaround in the DRAM market, the share prices of Samsung Electronics shot up sharply in Friday's trading, after having fallen to as low as the 140,000- won range. ``There are at least initial signs that investor confidence has returned to Samsung Electronics, which is one of the top two DRAM makers in the world,'' said one securities analyst. However, the reality is that Samsung's shares have been losing value, even after the company recently announced its quarterly business results, which it showed a record turnover and profits of 8.7 trillion won and 2.2 trillion won respectively. On the other hand, the shares of Hyundai Electronics Industries, which had been in the 20,000-won range just a few months ago, were struggling below 10,000 won throughout last week. ``The situation is obviously quite different for these two companies, and their stock prices do not directly reflect the conditions in the global DRAM market,'' said another securities analyst. With Intel coming in with strong third quarter figures in the middle of last week, there is hope, both here and abroad, that the actual situation in the market will be reflected in stock prices. ``The fact that Samsung's shares have fallen from a high of 388,000 won last year to Friday's close of 163,000 won simply does not show the strong business performance that it has turned in,'' the analyst said. In an effort to cover the losses that were incurred, Samsung said last week that it will be buying back 500 billion won worth of its own stock to eventually take it off the market, and that more concerted efforts will be made to ensure shareholder value and corporate transparency. ``On one hand, you have a DRAM maker like Micron Technology in the United States, whose profitability is nowhere close to that of Samsung but its stock is fetching handsome prices,'' the analyst said. Consequently, he suggested that Samsung and other Korean chipmakers concentrate harder on corporate transparency to put the minds of foreign investors at rest. Even as such efforts are being made, both Samsung and HEI are believed to have used up much of its inventory, which means that DRAM prices should increase again with the shortage of supply, particularly with the peak year-end season just around the corner. jakenho@koreatimes.co.kr

To: Rich1 who wrote (60019)	11/2/2000 9:18:53 PM
From: cellhigh	Respond to of 93625

klic warning of lower than lowered expectations should prime a few shorts.

To: Rich1 who wrote (60019)	11/2/2000 11:16:44 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Rich, I think that part of the stall at $52 are short (those that wanted to short before but saw the price collapse and prayed, if it ever come back...., and those that successfully covered in the low $40'. There are a number of rationales that the shorts have which have their own merit. Many of these have been published on this thread in the past. For instance, some think that RMBS's earning royalties is "unamerican' and thus eventually the bu$$ will be "punished". Others believe that the technology is obvious from the prior art, and thus the German courts will throw the patents out and invalidate them, opening the door to invalidation in the US. Yet other shorts, believe that RMBS' participation in JEDEC for a short time is sufficient cause to cause the court to render a judgement similar to that landed on Dell. Others yet, believe that the semi cycle is peaking and thus in lieu of $40 B in DRAM per year over the next two years, we may be stuck at anywhere between $20 to $30 B (reducing revenues for the bu$$ accordingly). Yet other are asking, so what? this technology might be good for five years, and what next? With "peak revenues of maybe $6/share and after that a decline, why pay more than 5 times these future earnings. I could list another ten "arguments" why some very smart investors will find the bu$$ a "smart short". Personally, I think they err. Zeev