To: Marc who wrote (783 ) 11/3/2000 1:13:23 PM From: All Mtn Ski Respond to I think the analysts have lost some credibility with investors. Some semi analysts could really look bad if, as the industry execs have been saying, the semi market continues its growth with no major 4th Qtr interruptions or "mass-warnings". Many of them look to have downgraded near the bottom. Its hardly a shock to find that mature and commodity ICs like DRAM and microprocessors may be seeing slower growth rates. And isn't it a good thing that the capital equipment guys are seeing less aggressive purchases which almost guarantee a supply-driven downturn? I guess its not so good if you are long those stocks. But the point is, could the semi execs have learned something about the overcapacity led downturn last time? AMAT said on the last CC that they were hopeful the DRAM guys would pickup spending in the latter half of 2000, because they haven't been buying their normal share of equipment until then. With DRAM prices getting softer, those smaller capacity increases could make it so that this could just be an adjustment to a smaller rate of PC growth. And the analysts keep mentioning component inventory issues. Talk about over blowing an issue and painting a whole industry with the same brush. If cell phones are dead, and there has been "double ordering" of components, then why are AHAA and TQNT beating targets, and increasing guidance for the next few quarters? ANAD has an ERICY issue, RFMD may have a market share loss issue with NOK, TXN sells into most handsets made and thus would feel some pain with a large OEM like ERICY. Why ignore the winners in this space? Really, ERICY is a total disaster on handsets and because they are #3, they bring the whole industry with them. Also, why aren't analysts seeing the success 2nd tier OEMs are having against the bigger boys, and report on that? Sheez, one listen to the AHAA CC and they would know exactly what is happening. That is the bottom line, today an individual investor can do better research than the people who are paid millions. And that is even more true now with Full Disclosure.
