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To: upanddown who wrote (77781)	11/3/2000 12:22:25 AM
From: dsindakota	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Phil Flynn's commentary on the Mid East situation: Thurs 11-2-00 Truce! Ehud Barak and Yassar Arafat have agreed to a truce. The potential end of the violence should pressure the energy complex early on. Both leaders are calling for an end to the hostilities and this should cause some downward thrust in crude. Yet the selloff will probably be short lived as the facts remain we have near record low supplies and we’re seeing no build in the weekly stocks report from the API. We all hope for an end to the fighting but that fact remains to be seen. And we’re just getting word of an explosion in an outdoor market in Jerusalem and two were killed. Stay tuned. I hate to say I told you so but I told you so! I said yesterday if you give Sadaam any room for trouble making, he’ll jump on it. The UN Security Council agreed to pay Sadaam in euros for his oil just as he wanted. This got Sadaam to thinking and he’s come up with a new threat to potentially keep his oil off the market. Now he wants to sell his oil to Syria and reopen that pipeline serving that area. I just can’t see any way the UN will go along with this latest plan by Sadaam and think of the implications. Right now, Iraq can only sell his oil according to UN rules. And rule number one is the UN handles all their oil sales. It must go to the UN first and then the UN passes the sale along and then the UN handles the proceeds of the sale back to Iraq. And the proceeds are supposed to go strictly for humanitarian aide. How they attempt to accomplish that is tricky at best but at least there are controls on old Sadaam. Sadaam hates it. He has done everything he can think of to get around these kind of sanctions that have been in place since the Persian Gulf War ended. He lost the war and now doesn’t want to pay the piper. The UN has let some sanctions slide, i.e.: weapons inspections but I don’t see how they’ll let this one go. There will be no controls if Sadaam sells his oil to Syria and just how would the UN stop him? Syria has been a rogue nation as well causing the UN trouble all along. The proceeds of the sale would go right back into Sadaams pockets. Highly doubtful he’ll use it to buy food and medicine for the Iraqi people. So, it seems to me he’ll do anything he can think of to disrupt our elections. He’ll do all he can to bring closer ties with other Arab nations and cause trouble. I believe he’d love a confrontation with the US further cementing relationships with his neighbors and gaining him sympathy. With tensions raw already because of fighting between the Israelis and Palestinians, I can imagine how it would look if the US got involved militarily. Yuck. And it appears he is bringing the Arab nations closer to him as many were in attendance for the Iraqi Trade Fair held just recently. In all, 14 Senior Officials from Arab nations attended including the Prime Minister from Jordan. He wants those sanctions lifted. And I believe it’s just a matter of time before he pulls his oil off the market and that’s his most powerful weapon of all. Never a dull moment with this guy and The Energy Report will keep you up to the minute. The sanctions imposed were to hurt and punish the offender - Sadaam Hussein mostly but other rogue nations as well and Iran is in this bunch. Sure looks to me like this might just turn around and hurt the enforcer - the rest of the world. This will be the case especially if unity starts to break apart among the rest of the world to keep the sanctions in place. A new potential problem for the US is gearing up right now and it could cost us dearly. Enter Iran. Just recently, a huge new oil field called Azadegan was discovered in Iran. This new discovery needs to be developed and the US wanted first negotiating rights to develop it. Guess what? The deal went to Japan. This is a huge deal for Japan as it will secure a supply of oil for them for years. Could the US use that oil? Oh yes, you know that’s true! Looks like we’ll be left out and that’s not good. President Clinton signed an Executive Order that banned US oil companies from doing business with Iran. So easy to blame big oil for everything but then we all wake up and realize we need them for our oil and our way of life. How important is that? We all play small parts in the big picture and we’re all needed. Every one of us. This is a strong lesson on why we need an energy policy with this part of the world. We can’t ignore these relationships except in times of trouble. These relationships need constant nourishment especially when we rely on them as we do. And even more especially when the EPA stands in the way of independence from the Arab world and progress by not allowing US oil companies to explore for our own supply of oil. Ultimately, the big picture starts to make sense. Stay tuned. All this fun and tight supplies too! The DOE backed up the API and then some by saying crude stocks fell further than the 749,000 barrels reported by the API. No back up supply and Madmen running strategic countries. Poor old bears are stuck in a trap. Long dec crude apprx 3230 - leave stop at 3250 Long dec heating oil apprx 9300 - leave stop at 9200 Long dec unleaded apprx 8630 - leave stop at 8670 Have a Great day! alaron.com Dave

To: upanddown who wrote (77781)	11/3/2000 7:20:53 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

John: I agree that sustained $25 oil would be quite bullish. But many investors will remain cautious on OSX stocks during an oil price decline until they see where prices trough.

To: upanddown who wrote (77781)	11/3/2000 7:39:22 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

I suspect oil prices may become very volatile in the Spring if the USA inventories of crude and products recover a bit. Also I suspect the futures traders will test OPEC's resolve to defend $22. The speculation premium can cut both ways I suspect. I hope OPEC is scared sh*tless right now that prices will fall like a rock. They had better start singing in unison that they will cut production as required to support the band. But if we have a normal Winter here and in Europe I suspect it wont matter to much what OPEC says or does. Inventories of HO will end the season low as well as gasoline heading into the driving season.