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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (39115)	11/3/2000 10:28:02 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Other back end companies, COHU, TER, EGLS, have announced slowing or declining Aren't the lead times for TER and EGLS longer? I would put COHU in the KLIC camp. COHU showed slowing sales last April.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (39115)	11/3/2000 10:42:34 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, Quit confusing us with facts. Didn't you know that these threads are for whining whenever one picks and buys a ticker that subsequently declines in value; or for displaying exhilaration when for some equally inexplicable reason that ticker goes up. Your posts are showing understanding of the industry, its cycles, the companies and their drivers. Blasphemy. Back to lurk mode with you. <vbg> Have a good day, Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (39115)	11/3/2000 10:47:38 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

OT I was driving home last night when the Bush DWI story broke. The newstation reporter announced "Bush arrested for DWI", news coming up on the hour. I drove home thinking how stupid GWB could be by being out partying 5 days before the election. There was no hint that this had happened 25 years ago. Newstations always use these kind of leadins but this is absurd. A friend told me that a TV newsflash he had heard said basically the same thing with a news at 11 blurb.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (39115)	11/3/2000 12:43:57 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, Sorry, but I disagree with you. First, "slowing or declining orders" are different than deferrals or pushouts. You talk about new orders, KLIC talks about change of old orders. Second, 50% Q revenue decline is high even for KLIC. Third, yes it could be "wait for front end installation then buy back end" blip, but it may be also "stop buildup, too much current capacity" situation. There is no clear indication of which one is the case. Fourth, I would claim that chip demand visibility is still very low. However - and I think here you, I and Scott agree - current semi-equip prices are low enough to start some positions even if the slowdown hits full scale. Finally, I think that reading AMAT thread is rather useless. Thread predictions are as bad as those of the analysts or industry sources. And that's not because of the posters qualifications. Thread has great minds at work. The chip + equip demand is simply unpredictable. Information waterfall only adds to confusion and irrational decisions. The best plan in semi-equips is to have buy target levels and buy. Then have sell target levels and sell. Information be damned. I think that's what you did successfully last time. Good luck Jurgis