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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rita who wrote (2872)	11/3/2000 3:15:14 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Respond to of 19633

I play big dollars in the market and I do use the model (I put my $$ where my mouth is). Currently, I am heavily investing in the Pro Funds Ultra Bear Fund. Even though my model is NEUTRAL, there are signs that it could turn NEGATIVE soon. For example, both interest rates and the US dollar have deteriorated. VALUATION appears to be teetering on going to POOR. There are three components of my model: percentage to target, momentum and valuation. Percentage to target incorporates both value and momentum to get a theoretical target price. I find that +3% generates a BUY, -3% a SELL, and between the two, NEUTRAL. Momentum ranges from VERY NEGATIVE to VERY POSITIVE. This gives you an indication of trend and speed of trend. Valuation tell you what risk you are taking; it ranges from VERY POOR to VERY ATTRACTIVE. If momentum is VERY POSITIVE and Valuation is POOR and Percent to Target is +5%, then the market is headed up quickly with an upside of 5%, but the risk is high. I try to use daily charts for computing targets on interest rates and the US dollar and I use the Standard and Poor's website to get my info on earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. We should see the 3rd Elliot Wave soon. It all adds up to a very sharp sell-off soon and I'm betting that way. I hope I've answered your question. Best wishes, David Lee Smith For information on the MomentuMonkey model click on the following link: www7.bcity.com

To: Rita who wrote (2872)	11/4/2000 12:57:57 AM
From: Blue On Black	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19633

OT for this thread... Rita, Sorry for the useless post. It comes from being distracted and trying to do too many things at once.... What I was trying to say is... While I daytrade in a minor way, I try to spot things that I can't lose on. That usually involves longer term trades...which I view as months, at most, hopefully weeks. I try to park on leftover 'momo' trades and build into a position....short or pick up positions that have little downside left. ICGE...what was the downside? Not enough to worry about. The current HAND which I building? Where will it be in 6 months...or more importantly, around lockup expiration or when the next 'hot' thing is to be chased. If you have a STMP..ZIXI...linux stock...whatever....you have to start somewhere. I try to keep enough positions that I know there is a payday down the road sometime. That is where the alotment comes in...I don't do homeruns TODAY. I just take positions that I can stand come hell or high water and wait on gravity. I'll trade and average on them. A pig is a pig. But that doesn't mean that they can't smooth you out if you get too ambitious... It's not daytrading but I sleep at night.... Just a percentage player, lee PS. I stay away from the early days of 'guru' calls. There is always the next day. If I miss something, there is always another 'something'.